I'm going to give a quick run-down of the deals made over the last few weeks and the impact each player may have on their club this year and in the future. Deadline day deals will be added tomorrow.
1. July 7 - CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson and PTBNL
This trade might be the biggest July deal, and it happened over three weeks ago. Cleveland wanted to trade its ace for a better return than the two draft picks it would have received for compensation had he left this offseason. Milwaukee gave up what I consider to be roughly equal to that. LaPorta is an elite young hitter. However, he is already 23 and is still at AA. Since LaPorta was drafted after his senior year at Florida, he started his pro career at last a year later than most other first-round products, and that has an affect on the speed by which a player can make an impact in the majors. However, there's no doubt he can hit, so he's a good prospect in return for an ace. The other two players named so far in the deal are of the less well-known variety. Zach Jackson was in the Dave Bush-Lyle Overbay deal after the 2005 season, and I was high on him at that point. However, the Texas A&M product has disappointed and is currently in his fourth stint at AAA. He's still only 25, but the quadruple-A cap might be coming. Rob Bryson is the upside arm in the deal, being only 20 and pitching in the Sally League. His numbers have been good, and he has time to develop, so his eventual performance might determine who wins on this deal. The player to be named will also go on to determine the winner.
2. July 8 - Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and Josh Donaldson
Just a day after CC Sabathia got traded, another high-end arm was moved in Rich Harden. If healthy, Rich Harden is a truly elite pitcher. I would pick him to be in my starting rotation if I could choose any five starters in the entire bigs. However, his health has been a huge question mark for quite a long time. That is likely the reason why Gaudin was in the deal too. If Harden breaks down, Gaudin takes his place. Given the chance of Harden breaking down on his watch, Billy Beane sold for a questionable package. However, 3 of the 4 players have already seen Oakland, and I don't seen this deal as one-sided as people believe. If Rich Harden turns out to be a career Kerry Wood, the A's will win on this deal. The odds of that happening are pretty close to 50-50. Sean Gallagher has been rumored to be in a number of trades for almost a year now, and he's now the headliner in the Rich Harden return. At 22 years old, he's never posted an ERA above the 3.39 he posted in 11 starts at AA Tennessee at age 21. He understandably struggled in 8 relief appearances last year for the Cubs, but this year he's combined for a 4-4 record with a 4.11 ERA in 16 games (14 starts) in the bigs. That's very impressive for a kid his age. I may be one of the few that like him as the main return in this trade. Matt Murton was also in trade rumors over the offseason. As it stands now, he is a Major League hitter. He has always hit well at every level, including the majors. It's obvious that the Cubs' treatment of him has affected him this year, but I see him coming around again to be a solid left field option for the A's in the coming years. Eric Patterson is a Georgia Tech product (like Murton), and has patterned himself in a similar way. He hits for average with good patience and average power. If he can replace Mark Ellis at second next year, this deal can start to turn in favor of the A's. The final piece is catcher Josh Donaldson. After his pro debut at Boise last year, he looked to be all about the hit tool, as well. However, he's struggled at Peoria this season, and his stock dropped significantly. However, his bat is high-end, and if he stays at catcher, he can be a steal for the A's.
3. July 17 - Joe Blanton for Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matt Spencer
Oakland struck again with the third major trade of a big league starter in ten days. Blanton has been the definition of solid for the A's over three and a half seasons, starting 33, 31, 34, and then 20 games over that time. Posting solid ERAs and peripherals, he's in line to be a great innings-eater for years to come. He's still only 27, which means he theoretically has three more seasons left in his peak performance window, meaning the Phillies are big winners if they can keep him for that entire window. He's scheduled to reach free agency after 2010. The A's return for Blanton was also received a little badly by most writers. Cardenas is a 21 year-old second baseman playing at high-A. He has a good hit tool and is a smart baserunner (16-16 in SB attempts), but he lacks power projection. His age is a big plus considering the level at which he's playing, but you would hope his bat starts to come around and come together with his solid fielding. Outman is a lefty that converted to relief pitching this year at AA. He's almost 24, and the A's are converting him back to starting, so I don't expect too much from him. He was pitching well in the Eastern League at the time of the trade, but has been shelled in his first two starts for Midland. He's nothing more than a fringe starting prospect. Spencer is an outfielder who had his pro debut just last year. He's struggled with his hitting, and he generally doesn't walk a lot, so he has a ways to go. The A's have begun a transition to first base for Spencer, and he's made two errors in 10 games there for high-A Stockton. To be transitioning two key pieces in a major trade right away is risky, so I'm not sure that the A's got enough for Blanton.
4. July 20 - Ray Durham for Steve Hammond and Darren Ford
Ray Durham has become a Jeff Kent-type second baseman with less power. He is no longer a real stolen base threat, and he has to rely completely on his on-base skills, as his average power has started to dip to below-average. However, there's no doubt he can be a valuable hitter on a competing team. He's been to the postseason with three different teams, and he's 36, so his leadership is an equally important asset to consider when evaluating this deal. The Giants were basically hoping to get a fair return, and they might have done so. Lefty pitcher Steve Hammond is already 26, but he's showing he can succeed at the high-minors. He reached AAA for the first time this year, and has been average at AA and AAA. If he transitions to a relief role from his current role of starting, he could be a valuable specialist in the Ron Mahay mold. Darren Ford is an outfielder currently playing in high-A. He's 22, so his age is on the fringe prospect level. He's struggled mightily with his bat in 755 high-A plate appearances, so his speed seems to be his only tool. He's currently at 53 steals for the year, so say hello to the poor man's Freddy Guzman. I credit the Brewers for finding a piece for a playoff run without giving up too much in return.
5. July 22 - Jon Rauch for Emilio Bonifacio
I have yet to read an account of this trade that favors the Nationals. Everyone is down on Washington GM Jim Bowden lately, and this seems to be just one more thing for his opponents to point to. However, you have to remember that the Nationals are not playing for anything within the next few years. It's pretty much inconceivable that they'll win anytime before 2011 or 2012, so getting a longer-term cheap second baseman might be a good thing. Bonifacio is 23, and his hitting has steadily improved at each level in the minors. Having reached AAA this year, he's poised to move in the second base role in Washington as soon as the path is cleared. He has almost no power to speak of, but his speed is praised. His fielding has also gotten steadily better, so I'm ready to anoint him the next Aaron Hill. There's no doubt that Jon Rauch is a quality reliever. However, if you could trade a club-favored contract reliever for a future second baseman with at least three years of pre-arbitration salaries, would you do it? Rauch turns 30 in about two months, so I would take the second baseman.
6. July 22 - Randy Wolf for Chad Reineke
Does someone need to tell Ed Wade to look at his team's record? Your reply should be that any GM would obviously know his own team's record. However, maybe we need to inform him of other teams' records. Aha! The other teams have won more! Yes Ed, that light bulb going off means you're an idiot. Free agent compensation is based on performance over the last two years before free agency. Randy Wolf made 18 starts last year, and if healthy, will make around 30 before the end of this year. His ERAs have been 4.73 and 4.79. Pretty consistent. If the Elias formula for ranking is indeed total games, innings pitched, wins, winning percentage, ERA, and strikeouts, Randy Wolf will likely not reach Type B status. So basically, Wade gave away Chad Reineke for some expensive Randy Wolf starts. I love it when GMs sell players and spend money for no reason. Reineke is nothing special himself. However, he comes cheaply. He's 26 in AAA, and has been in the mid-4s in ERA, so he's likely just a fifth starter at best. But he's basically free.
7. July 25 - Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen, and Jeff Karstens
This trade was also seen as selling low by the Pirates. Nady has been an excellent hitter thus far for Pittsburgh, so most thought he would fetch a high price. Marte has been in the same boat, though he's four years older than Nady. Therefore, in a package involving both of them, most expected at least a major prospect to change hands. However, the main return, Jose Tabata, has been criticized up and down all season long for a lack of work ethic and a surprising disappearance of tools and projection. Tabata is about to be 20, and while he's playing in AA, he just looks out of place. For someone with so great skills, his numbers just don't play out. The bat is not there, the legs are not there, and he's just been an average right fielder. In other words, the Pirates scouts see something that we don't. I don't see him panning out to be a top-flight outfielder, but he might eventually be a serviceable outfielder in the bigs. Ohlendorf was in the Randy Johnson trade in January 2007, and has shown good stuff with the Yankees. He's a Princeton product, so you know that he'll figure out ways to get people out when the stuff starts to go. Still, he's about to turn 26 and hasn't seen real success in the bigs. He was a reliever with the Yankees, but the Pirates are turning him back into a starter. He can be a possible number four starter somewhat soon. Dan McCutchen is another name we've seen a lot in rumors lately. Being a Yankees prospect, his name was everywhere. However, he's a guy that's almost 26 and still hasn't seen the big leagues. He's put together good seasons at each stop, though he's still perfecting it in AAA. He's always been old for his level, so you have to credit some of his success to that. Even though his name is the big one on the pitching side of this deal, I wouldn't be surprised if his big league career is the worst of the three new Pirates pitchers. Karstens is another guy about to be 26 who hasn't really seen big league success. However, he was putting together a fairly solid season at AAA before the trade. He's dealt with injuries in the past, so he's no sure thing. Overall, I think the Pirates' new acquisitions are too close to their projected primes to improve into solid starting pitchers. Jose Tabata is not a good centerpiece for this deal, and I think the pressure of the mess Dave Littlefield left in Pittsburgh influenced current GM Neal Huntington too much at his first trading deadline.
8. July 26 - Casey Blake for Jon Meloan and Carlos Santana
This is a trade that is likely useful for both sides. The Dodgers get the reliable third baseman they've coveted for the playoff run, and the Indians get a return more likely to make a Major League impact than one or two draft picks in compensation for Blake's departure via free agency this winter. Casey Blake has been a mainstay in the Cleveland lineup since his surprise season in 2003. Having significant time in both right field and at third base added to the potential suitors for him at the deadline, as many teams wanted him to fill an outfield void. However, the Dodgers landed him and his solid bat. They'll get at least a draft pick in compensation, as he'll at least be a Type B free agent this winter. Don't be surprised if his strong season puts him in Type A territory. He's going to be 35 in August, so don't expect the Dodgers to try and sign him to an extension. Meloan was a highly regarded pitcher in the Dodgers system after his 2006 season saw him jump from the Sally League up to AA in less than a season. His ERA at any of his stops never exceeded 2.50 between 2006 and 2007 combined. However, the Dodgers decided to experiment with Meloan this season and move him into a starting role. The results have been mixed, as he was not only trying this full-time for the first time in awhile, but he was also in a bad pitching environment in Las Vegas. Since the trade, the Indians have moved him back into the 'pen, and I expect him to be a quality contributor there for awhile. He's still only 24 and has closer stuff, so look out Kobayashi. Santana seems to have gotten over the hump this year. After a disappointing season last year at Great Lakes (low-A), he's turned it on in the Cal League to a tune of .323/.431/.563 in 350 at-bats. Whether these are inflated by the league remains to be seen. He's still a 22 year-old catching product with raw skills behind the plate, so it's going to be his bat that gets him to the bigs, though that's at least a few years away.
9. July 26 - Anthony Reyes for Luis Perdomo
This was a very minor deal, but it has high upside on either side. Reyes' stock has fallen tremendously over the last few years from the untouchable status he once had. He's now seen as someone that will be 27 in October, and has yet to put it together in the big leagues. The Cardinals tried him in the bullpen, but that didn't seem to work out. The Indians will now use him as a starter, and he's working through kinks at AAA again. His minor league numbers have been good all-around, so he still has a chance to be a solid starter for the Indians once it all clicks (if it does). Perdomo saw his stock rise this year with his success at high-A Kinston. Allowing only 4 earned runs in 39 innings will do that. However, he's already 24, and relief prospects can be hit-or-miss. He's continued his success at double-A so far, but it remains to be seen whether that will translate into big league success down the road. Both teams got slightly older players in this deal, but each one has a chance to make a real big league impact if they put it together.
10. July 29 - Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek
It's becoming clear that Mark Teixeira signed with Scott Boras for a reason. Even though he seems interested in winning, he doesn't seem to be a piece that will actually lead to a winning club. He will put up good numbers with his bat and will be a great first baseman, but he just does not seem to fit with teammates. His loyalty lies with no one, but the Angels are the winners in that, because they get two draft picks this winter. Kotchman has the chance to prove a lot of people wrong now. Often criticized for not hitting for power, Kotchman now gets to show that his skills can translate into a productive first baseman. A consistent hitter, Kotchman's patience parlays into extravagantly low strikeout rates and average slugging percentages. He rarely makes errors at first, and I don't think the Braves infield will skip a beat without Teixeira's glove. Marek is viewed as the key to this deal. His success will determine whether the Braves get production that is better than two draft picks. Pitching out of the bullpen in AA this year, the 24 year-old Marek has enjoyed good success, posting a 3.66 ERA for Arkansas with 57 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. He's a bit old to be a key piece in this trade, but he has the skills to be a back-end reliever for the Braves.
11. July 30 - Ivan Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth
One-for-one this deal looks a bit odd. Pudge is having a better season offensively this year, and he's still throwing out 36% of basestealers at age 36. The Yankees will benefit from Pudge's departure this winter in the form of draft picks. Pudge is almost certainly going to be a Type A this offseason, while Farnsworth is not. If the Tigers don't benefit by somehow sneaking in as the wild card this October, the only plus they get is saving a little money. If Farnsworth does turn out to be a Type B free agent this winter, the Tigers are the clear loser in this deal.
