Texas Rangers Analyst

The New Texas Rangers Analyst

2008-10-18T09:32:00.001-04:00

Head over to the new Texas Rangers Analyst site now!

I thought I'd take the time to introduce what the new site and newsletter will be about. Sign up for the newsletter by emailing me at andy@texasrangersanalyst.com to recieve updates through your email rather than checking the site all the time. I've decided that I'm going to make the site available immediately so that you can see the stages it goes through as I add new topics and features. As of the moment, I only have the copies of the player profiles I did on my blog, and I'll have many more to come over the course of the offseason and beyond. The site has a quick outline of my plans for it, so check it out.

-Andy

Mailing List

2008-10-15T17:16:00.001-04:00

Hey guys, sorry for the long delay between posts. I'm working on launching a new all-inclusive Rangers site, but it's taking awhile what with a wedding coming up and classes. For now, shoot me an email at andy@texasrangersanalyst.com to sign up for my new mailing list on the status of the site and other Ranger news. -Andy

Player Profile - Ben Harrison

2008-08-19T07:00:00.000-04:00

Position: Outfield/Designated Hitter
Hits/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6'4''/203
Birthday: 9/18/1981 (Age 26)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2008 Season; Minor League Free Agent after 2010 Season

Background: Harrison was a 7th round draft pick of the Rangers in the 2004 draft out of the University of Florida. Entering Florida, he was a fairly highly-recruited player from Key West High School in the same state. His power wasn't very high in high school, though he hit for average very well. His commitment to Florida led to all 30 teams passing on him in the 2000 draft, despite being listed as the 44th-best Florida draft prospect in a deep state by Baseball America. As a result, Harrison entered the SEC and proceeded to have a monster career. His freshman year, he split time in the outfield, though he lost playing time as the season went on. He finished the year hitting .270, hitting 4 home runs in 100 at-bats. After a solid summer in the Shenandoah Valley League following that year, Harrison was expected to be much-improved for his sophomore campaign. He met those expectations with a .342/.399/.615 line, hitting a career-high 8 home runs in 161 at-bats. He played well in the Cape Cod League following the year, and entered 2003 as a high-end draft prospect. He did not disappoint, finishing at .362/.437/.598 with 11 home runs. His biggest weakness was his strikeout rate, having gone down 50 times in 224 at-bats. Scouts in general saw this as a sign that he was still raw for his age, and he ended up being drafted in the 4th round by the Cleveland Indians. He ended up not signing, and returned to play his senior year at Florida. He finished at .354/.463/.629 with 17 home runs, but an equally frustrating strikeout rate. The Rangers nabbed him with their 7th round selection, and signed him for $27,500, a number far below what he was offered the year before by the Indians.

Tools: Harrison has been seen as a toolsy hitter ever since he came on scouts' radars in high school. He hit well for average over his college career, and he continued that near the beginning of his pro career until injuries in 2007. As of now, his hitting for average tool is probably rated as slightly above-average, with the potential to be a .280 hitter in the majors. His power tool is also above-average, as he's developed his power over time. His max for a year might be around 25 homers. His speed is somewhat deceiving, because he's an excellent baserunner. He's always over a 75% success rate on stolen base attempts over the course of a season, and he's nabbed 18 in 20 attempts this year. The tool itself is average. As for fielding, we haven't gotten a good view of Harrison's outfield skills since his return from shoulder issues this year. In the past, he's been prone to mistakes in the outfield, as evidenced by his 10 errors in 67 games in the outfield for Clinton in 2005. However, he's cut down the errors somewhat, though his range is a little limited. I would grade his fielding tool as somewhat below-average. His arm strength has eroded due to shoulder injuries, and it also grades as a little below-average, though he's handling right field for Oklahoma fairly well so far. His arm is accurate, but it's without the pop most right fielders show. Overall, his tools are a strength, but injuries and age are starting to play a major role in his ability to reach his potential.

Professional Experience: Harrison was assigned to Spokane out of Florida in 2004. He showed good wooden-bat power in his debut, hitting 11 homers in 214 at-bats. His line finished at .271/.339/.477, about average for an outfield prospect entering pro ball for the first time. Surprisingly, the Rangers assigned the older Harrison to Clinton out of Spring Training in 2005, despite him being 23 already. He struggled with the assignment, hitting .250/.323/.367, and the Rangers gracefully moved him to Bakersfield to try and break the monotony. In his 12 games in the Cal League, he hit .318/.367/.432, giving hope to some that he could rebound for 2006. He began the 2006 season back at Bakersfield, and he started the show the pop scouts hoped he would. In 331 at-bats there, he finished at .293/.397/.520, a solid line for a corner outfield prospect. He earned a promotion to Frisco in July, and hit .282/.341/.491 in 163 at-bats there. His smooth transition to AA was a relief to many, and Harrison entered 2007 on the cusp of a breakout year. However, major shoulder issues from a shoulder separation in Venezuela in the winter limited his year to 246 grueling at-bats, most of which were hampered by a shoulder that didn't want to lift the bat. He played 8 games for Frisco after missing the first two months of the season, and was promptly demoted to Bakersfield. His overall line sat at .232/.304/.358 for the season, and he entered 2008 on the verge of being cut if he struggled.

2008 Season: Harrison's main goal entering the season had to be staying healthy and productive at the plate. There are obvious issues in the outfield when returning from shoulder problems, but his main asset was always his bat. So far, Harrison has turned a corner. He opened the year at Frisco after a few extra weeks of strengthening, and hit .300/.385/.518 in 340 at-bats for the RoughRiders. With the injury to Nelson Cruz, the Rangers promoted Harrison to AAA, and he's had ups and downs against the more advanced pitching. Entering play today, he's at .243/.341/.357, an obvious disappointment considering his AA numbers. However, the most important thing is that Harrison has been consistently healthy, and is currently handling the right field job for the RedHawks with ease. His bat continues to be his strength, and he'll be with the RedHawks through the playoffs.

Future Outlook: Harrison is at a crossroads in baseball development. The Rangers themselves are at a crossroads when it comes to Harrison. Teams passed on Harrison at the Rule V draft last year due to his numerous issues following the shoulder separation. However, this year might be a little different. Harrison has been showing he can handle advanced pitching, and has also been showing an ability to play both left and right field. If the Rangers fail to add him to the 40-man roster, there's a real possibility he could find himself on someone else's come December. There isn't much space for Harrison on the Rangers' 40-man roster at this point, so I don't see them adding him yet. They have another real development year before I think there's a good chance he'll be taken by another club. However, be aware of the possibility that this could be his last year in the Texas organization.

Profile Coming Next: LHP Zach Phillips

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Corey Young

2008-08-18T07:00:00.000-04:00

Throws: Left
Height/Weight: 6'2''/175
Birthday: 12/30/1986 (Age 21)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2011 Season

Background: Young came to the Rangers as a 12th round draft pick from Seton Hall in June this year. Before Seton Hall, Young was a decorated high school from New Jersey, having earned honors as an all-state pitcher as named by the Newark Star Ledger. However, he was undrafted, and went on to start almost immediately for the Pirates of Seton Hall. He posted average peripherals and ERAs over his first two years, and entered 2008 as a 7th-12th round range draft prospect. His 2008 campaign was almost entirely in the rotation, and he posted a career-best 3.52 ERA, going 8-4 with 79.1 innings pitched. He struck out 78 and walked 25, and hitters hit .239 against him. His college career showed slow, steady progress as his stuff improved. The Rangers signed him away from his senior year, and assigned him to Spokane.

Pitches: Young enters the Rangers' organization with a starter's repertoire. His fastball sits in the upper-80s mostly, and also has some sink due to his three-quarters arm slot. He complements the fastball with an average curve and changeup. Both showed solid improvement as his college career went along, and both are good reasons why he was drafted so high. His feel for pitching was noted by scouts in many organizations, and his offspeed pitches are seen as solid. When he changes speeds, he can add and subtract movement, and his location is pretty good with all his pitches. Expect each of his pitches to improve steadily over time.

Professional Experience: 2008 is Young's first pro season.

2008 Season: Young signed a few days after the draft and was assigned to short-season Spokane. He's been working out of the bullpen, a place where most think he will stick long-term. So far, he's had good success. In 25 innings out of the 'pen, he's posted a 3.24 ERA with 27 strikeouts and 13 walks. Obviously his control could be better, but he's adjusting to the bullpen, and he's also only allowing hitters to hit .191 off of him. One slight worrisome thing is that Young's splits against hitters are a little lopsided. He's holding lefties to a .094 average, while righties are at .242. It's good that he's so effective against lefties, but there is still some hope that Young can be an all-purpose pitcher. His debut has been solid, and his control has been improving of late, so look for a good ending to the year.

Future Outlook: Young is someone that profiles as a middle reliever in the long-term. However, if his stuff improves steadily like it has in the past, he has the makeup to start. Don't be surprised to see him in the rotation at Clinton next year. However, his success against lefties probably has him written down in the lefty specialist role for the Rangers a few years down the road. If the Rangers choose to go that route, look for him to start at Bakersfield next year, and possibly move like Andrew Laughter has this year. He has great feel for pitching and a relatively young arm with regards to innings, so I think he can have success as a starter for the next few years.

Profile Coming Next: OF Ben Harrison

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Davis Stoneburner

2008-08-15T07:00:00.000-04:00

Position: Infield
Hits/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6'0''/175
Birthday: 1/14/1985 (Age 23)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2010 Season

Background: Stoneburner came to the Rangers in the 9th round of 2007's amateur draft out of James Madison University. He had gone to James Madison from Mills E. Godwin High in Virginia, where he was a moderately-decorated player. From there, Stoneburner went on to start for all four of his years at JMU, improving slightly from start to finish. His freshman year had a .295 line with fairly good plate discipline and a shade of gap power. His sophomore year was disappointing considering the expectations. His average dropped to a .259 mark, and his discipline and power stayed at the same level as his freshman campaign. Stoneburner hoped for a strong return in his junior year in 2006, but a torn ACL 31 games into the season derailed that hope. He had been having a career season at the time, hitting .325 with a career high 6 home runs. However, his plate discipline stayed roughly the same. Every team passed over Stoneburner in the 2006 draft, so he came back to JMU for his senior year. He stayed healthy the whole year, and had a line similar to his 2006 season before the injury, hitting .324 with 7 homers. He was regarded as an easy sign as a senior, so the Rangers called his name in the 9th round and gave him a small $10,000 bonus.

Tools: Stoneburner is one of those minor league infielders that has no plus tool. His ability to hit for average and power are highly in doubt, and he's done nothing to show improvement since signing over a year ago. His speed is also nothing special, as he's just 8 for 13 in stolen base attempts in 99 games as a pro to this point. His fielding is seen as especially bad, as he's made 27 errors in 97 games at various postitions, mostly at shortstop. He only began to play shortstop full-time in college, so it's possible he's still learning the position. However, he's about to complete his fifth season in the infield, so you'd hope he's adjusted by now. His arm is nothing special, so his glove will have to improve. On the whole, his tools don't play out at all, so he'll have to rely on heady play to advance.

Professional Experience: Stoneburner's pro debut did not go very well at Spokane in 2007. He played rather sparingly as a reserve infielder, gathering only 85 at-bats over the entire season, and finished with a .235/.313/.306 line. His plate discipline was average, and his glove was just plain bad. He made 8 errors in 21 games at shortstop and 4 in 6 games at third. He got caught in his only steal attempt during the season, and he entered 2008 with only a job as a reserve infielder.

2008 Season: Stoneburner's 2008 campaign has been similar to Jacob Kaase's. He's shuttled between Bakersfield and Clinton, depending on who's healthy at the time. Since Erik Morrison has graduated to Bakersfield, Stoneburner's been back at Clinton splitting time at shortstop. Between Clinton and Bakersfield, he's played all four infield positions, committing errors at all but first base (where he played in a single game). As with most part-time infielders, he's struggled with his plate discipline, as his numbers have been in decline even relative to his college numbers. At the moment, he's looking at a .259/.307/.389 line in 162 at-bats for Clinton. That's not what you would want from a 23 year-old college draftee. It's still not fair to say Stoneburner is incapable of playing well, as his playing time has been erratic at best. However, he did prove he can't handle pitching in the Cal League, and the Midwest League is a little over his head too. Stoneburner's 2008 season has been a disappointment.

Future Outlook: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rangers cut Stoneburner loose this offseason. He's done nothing to distinguish himself over players like Kaase, who has hit better than Stoneburner all year. If he does stick around for another year, look for it to be as a fill-in at Clinton or Bakersfield again. He doesn't really have a future as an infielder at any of the upper levels.

Profile Coming Next: LHP Corey Young

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Scott Feldman

2008-08-14T07:00:00.000-04:00

Throws: Right
Height/Weight: 6'5''/210
Birthday: 2/7/1983 (Age 25)
Roster Status: On 25- and 40-man Rosters; Eligible for Arbitration after 2009 Season

Background: Scott Feldman came to the Rangers as a 30th round pick in the 2003 draft from the College of San Mateo in California. He had finished his two-year career there with a 25-2 record after playing high school ball for Burlingame High School in the same state. It took the Rangers nearly a month to sign Feldman, but they got it done. The previous year, the Astros had drafted Feldman in the 41st round, but had failed to sign him. On the whole, Feldman was seen as a pitcher with some upside who needed some refinement to be considered a quality pitcher.

Pitches: Since Feldman moved his delivery up to three-quarters from the above-pictured sidearm delivery, he's really sharpened his pitches. As a starter, he features up to four pitches in any game. His main fastball is a sinker that routinely sits in the low-90s, touching as high as 94 on some nights. However, the harder he throws, the less movement he gets, so the Rangers are more comfortable with somewhere around 92 for his sinker. Feldman has a second fastball variation, a cutter, that he uses frequently against left-handed hitters. It usually sits around 90-91. It is a developing pitch that sits with his changeup as his two main options for lefties. The changeup itself is of the average variety, and he does make mistakes with it. He rarely ever throws it against righties, but it is his third pitch against lefties. If he commands it, it is a quality pitch. His last pitch is a curve that has gained bite since his motion was re-worked. He's much more likely to throw the curve against righties than lefties, but once again, he can get into trouble locating it. From a pitch standpoint, Feldman has a lot of similarities to Cardinal pitcher Chris Carpenter when healthy. However, Feldman has a long way to go in terms of locating those pitches.

Professional Experience: Feldman's pro experience has really been interesting, as it has involved two deliveries in two different roles. He only got into a few games in his debut season in 2003 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery, which cost him a full year of development. By the time he got back, he could only get it 7 innings in the AZL, and he didn't allow a run in that time. The Rangers challenged Feldman the next year with an assignment to Bakersfield and a "permanent" role as a relief pitcher. He only lasted 9 innings in Bakersfield before getting promoted to Frisco, having allowed no earned runs and striking out 11. However, his biggest challenge was yet to come. After 61 AA innings with a 2.36 ERA, Feldman found himself with the big club, and he only allowed an earned run in 9.1 innings to finish the year. 2006 found Feldman on the Oklahoma City-Arlington shuttle, with 23 games for Oklahoma and 36 for Texas. He had success for both, with an ERA of 2.00 for Oklahoma and 3.92 for Texas. Therefore, Feldman was expected to contribute heavily to the 2007 Rangers' bullpen. However, his ups and downs continued, and he finished 2007 with an ERA of 5.77 for the big club 4.50 for Oklahoma. The Rangers decided to move Feldman to a starting role for 2008 and moved his delivery around. He then went on to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, and entered 2008 figuring to spend the year transitioning into a starting pitcher in the minors.

2008 Season: Feldman's year of transition has really not had a chance to happen. He did indeed start the year in the minors, but that didn't last long. The Rangers' rotation has suffered numerous injuries, and Feldman has been one of the few healthy pitchers over the course of the season. He's only made 2 starts for Frisco this year, and has an ERA of 4.26 over those starts. However, he's started 19 for the Rangers, and also had 2 relief appearances. Until his implosion in Boston, he had been having arguably the most consistent season of any Ranger starting pitcher. However, he now stands at 4-5 with a 5.18 ERA over 114.2 innings, already a career high by a ton. The Rangers wanted to move Feldman back to the bullpen to finish off the year in order to keep his innings down. However, until the Rangers find suitable replacements for him in the rotation, he'll continue to step onto the rubber every fifth day with Tommy Hunter being the skipped starter. It's likely that Feldman will indeed find the bullpen between now and the end of year as Ranger starters come back from the DL. He'll continue working on his new motion and hopes to finish the year strong.

Future Outlook: Feldman is still only 25, amazing considering how long we've seen him in Arlington. This is his fourth year to spend time with the big club, and I expect we'll see quite a few more. His transition to starting has been quite exceptional, and he's now looking more like a true number four or five starter. By that, I mean that he's good enough to fit in to that number in most rotations around baseball. He'll continue to have some struggles locating, as most pitchers changing motions do. In addition, most sinkerballers have trouble from time to time keeping pitches down in the zone, so we'll see some nights where he gets hit hard. His stuff is fairly good, so I expect Feldman will be in the Rangers rotation until he gets bumped off in 3 years or so.

Profile Coming Next: IF Davis Stoneburner

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations. I'll be on vacation, so updates might be less frequent than usual. Check back for profiles, as I'll do my best to get them to you fairly often.

Player Profile - Aja Barto

2008-08-13T07:00:00.000-04:00

Position: Outfield
Hits/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6'5''/225
Birthday: 9/26/1986 (Age 21)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2011 Season

Background: Barto came to the Rangers this year as a non-drafted free agent. That means every team, including the Rangers, passed him up about 50 times each. Barto even attended a large baseball program in Tulane. However, he went undrafted after a mediocre junior season and decided to sign with the Rangers rather than return to Tulane for his senior year. Barto was actually a highly touted outfielder in high school. He attended Stratford High in Spring Branch, where he was a highly-decorated player. The Phillies drafted him in the 14th round in 2005, and he was only drafted that late due to signability concerns. He ended up not signing and started his career at Tulane where his older brother was a Green Wave football player. However, things weren't so great for Barto at Tulane once he got there. He only got 46 at-bats and 11 starts his freshman year due to a broken bone in his hand and normal freshman bumps. He finished at .152/.316/.304, an obvious disappointment for such a highly-touted player. After the year, he played in the Cape Cod League, and struggled against older competition. However, he did grow and moved on to be a starter his sophomore year at Tulane. He finished that year at .269/.354/.451, a fair improvement. Once again, he played in the Cape Cod League, and was named to the all-star team after an improved campaign. Barto's junior season at Tulane was supposed to be his breakout year. However, in 168 at-bats, he finished at only .274/.403/.393, an almost even season with his sophomore year. He did steal 21 of 24 bases, though. Baseball America ranked him the eighth-best prospect in Louisiana entering the draft and wrote, "If a club can get him to make adjustments, he could be a steal between the sixth and 10th rounds." After 50 rounds, the Rangers signed him, and are reaping the benefits.

Tools: Barto's build is that of a great hitter. At 6'5'', 225 lbs., he looks like he should tear the cover off the ball. However, his .274 average and 3 home runs this year show that his game is not very refined. He strikes out a lot due to a long swing, and his eye is average. However, his raw tools are still strong. His ability to hit for average is not too good, and a .270 season for him should be seen as a positive step forward in the pros. He's flashed raw power at times, as he led the Green Wave with 6 home runs his sophomore year. However, it's inconsistent, so his tool to this point has gone unused. His speed is considered above-average, and that is surprising given his bulk. Most players Barto's size lose some speed due to the extra inches they have to move, but Barto has kept himself a prime athlete over the years. His fielding has been quite good so far. He started mainly in center for the Green Wave, and has moved to right field in the pros. He has good range and did not make an error in his collegiate career. He's made a single error so far in right in the pros, but I'll credit him for reaching some balls others might not get to. His arm is probably his biggest weakness, as he only had four assists total in college, and has only one so far this year in the pros. However, his tools as a whole are quite strong, and he has a lot of upside.

Professional Experience: 2008 is Barto's first pro season.

2008 Season: Barto has adjusted very well to pro pitching so far. Assigned to the Arizona League following signing, Barto has gone on to hit the league well. Entering play today, his line stands at .319/.435/.553. The main concern has to be his 30 strikeouts in only 27 games. That was one of his main knocks by scouts, and he'll need to improve that to succeed against better pitching. He has shown a good eye so far, and his power is also starting to peek its head. He's hit 4 homers so far, to go along with 8 doubles and a triple. Surprisingly, he hasn't been running too much on AZL catchers. He has only 2 stolen bases against 1 caught. He's been steadily improving so far, so look for him to continue to do so for the rest of the year. His playing time has been a little more inconsistent with the arrivals of Clark Murphy and Cody Podraza, so we'll see how much more playing time he gets.

Future Outlook: Barto has the tools to be a Major League outfielder. However, considering he's a 21 year-old college product in the AZL, I'd say his chances of fulfilling that potential are low. He's been passed over for a chance to play for Bakersfield by Adam Cobb, and he'll need to improve his consistency across the board to even stay a starter in the organization past this year. It's likely he'll play in Clinton to open next year, and it's likely that he'll need a full year there. I think his tools will start to play out, but in the end his lack of consistency will come back to bite him, and he'll never reach the majors.

Profile Coming Tomorrow: RHP Scott Feldman

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Brennan Garr

2008-08-12T07:00:00.000-04:00

Throws: Right
Height/Weight: 6'2''/190
Birthday: 2/22/1984 (Age 24)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2009 Season

Background: Brennan Garr came to the Rangers as a 9th round draft pick in the 2006 draft out of the University of Northern Colorado. He signed quickly for only $65,000. At UNC, Garr was a two-way player, serving as the team closer only in times of need. He was the star third baseman for the Bears the rest of the time. However, he caught the eye of scouts with the stuff he flashed on the mound. After redshirting his freshman year, he came back to only throw in 3 games in 2004, getting pounded to the tune of a 11.57 ERA. However, he came back as the team's closer in 2005, limiting hitters to a .226 average and saving 7 games in 15 appearances. Garr struggled a lot with his control in 2006, walking 15 in 13.1 innings, although he did strike out 24. He saved 5 games over the course of the season, and that was enough for the Rangers to grab him with their 9th round selection.

Pitches: Garr currently features three pitches out of the bullpen. His first pitch is a fastball that has gained velocity since turning pro. He reached the low-90s while in college, but that has been kicked up to consistently sit in the mid-90s. His fastball does have a little natural sink, though I wouldn't go as far to call it a true sinking fastball. Movement is essential in a fastball, but location is the most important of all. Garr is really starting to locate, and that's what makes his fastball that more effective. His second pitch is a slider/slurve that he uses to get a third strike. Some have said it's a plus pitch, but until he can command it consistently for a called strike on the corner, it's an average pitch. He's still at AA, so he's getting more swings and misses in the dirt on the slider. His final pitch is his newest pitch, a changeup. He is adjusting very well to the pitch, and it is moving up to becoming an all-count pitch. If hitters sit on Garr's fastball, the changeup has proven to be deadly. These three pitches make Garr a late-inning bullpen threat similar to Eric Gagne's pitch mix.

Professional Experience: Garr came out of the shoot in 2006 with a good debut in Spokane. He pitched 26 innings there, double what he had pitched in the season at Northern Colorado leading up to the draft. He showed the ability to strike hitters out, but he also showed his lack of polish, walking 14 batters and hitting 6. His stuff started to play up towards the end of the season, so there was optimism that he could move quickly. He indeed did move quickly in 2007, playing in three levels over the course of the season. Beginning the year at Clinton, Garr shut down Midwest League hitters to the tune of a .177 average against him, sporting a 2.31 ERA over 39 innings, striking out 50. He improved his control, walking 16 batters. His promotion to Bakersfield didn't last long, as Cal League hitters hit only .158 off Garr. He struck out 20 in 16.1 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs for a 1.10 ERA. A late-season promotion to Frisco challenged Garr to locate his pitches even more, and he was up to the challenge. Texas League hitters did hit an improved .267 against him, but he still only allowed 2 earned runs over 7 innings. The main problem was the 10 walks he issued in those innings, a likely sign of wearing down late in the season. Garr entered 2008 as one of the best relief prospects in the Texas system.

2008 Season: Effects of a career-high in innings in 2007 seemingly carried themselves over into 2008, where Garr struggled early on with shoulder problems. He hit the DL in the first month of the season after horrible numbers, and was out for three weeks. However, he's come back to being his old self since his activation in May. He's continued to struggle at times with his control, but his stuff is still playing out against advanced competition in AA. On the season, Texas League hitters are hitting .253 against Garr including his early season slump. He's struck out 52 in 42.1 innings, and has a 3.40 ERA entering play today. His role has moved around a bit during the year, and he's pitched quite a bit in the seventh and eighth innings. He's not getting the groundballs he's gotten in the past, but he's still been effective. In his last few outings, he's started to stretch out to pitch 8 innings over 3 outings instead of the usual 1 inning appearances. Look for him to continue to work on locating pitches down the stretch as the RoughRiders prepare for the playoffs.

Future Outlook: Garr's long-term future is in the setup role in Arlington. It's a little surprising he hasn't seen Oklahoma yet this year, as he's already 24. His situation is quite unique compared to most 24 year-old relievers in the minors, in that he still has a lot of space to grow due to his lack of experience pitching. With more experience, his control will improve as will his stuff. Look for Garr to come to Arlington sometime early in 2009 when he proves he no longer needs minor league seasoning.

Profile Coming Tomorrow: RF Aja Barto

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Manny Pina

2008-08-11T07:00:00.000-04:00

Position: Catcher
Hits/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 5'11''/185
Birthday: 6/5/1987 (Age 21)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2008 Season; Minor League Free Agent after 2010 Season

Background: Manny Pina signed out of Venezuela in 2004. His greatest asset was seen to be his plus arm, and the Rangers signed him during the international signing period that summer. There was not a lot of competition for Pina, and the Rangers signed him quite easily.

Tools: Pina's plus tools revolve around his defense. His arm is rated highly, as is his glove. There's no doubt in the Rangers' organization that he has the best defense behind the plate of any of the young catchers other than Taylor Teagarden, who is much more experienced. He does make a good deal of errors, however, but the Rangers and most scouts believe this is due more to his talent, ability, and environment than his weaknesses. With time, he is expected to be a plus-plus defender. On the other side of things, he is not so good. His hit tool is highly questioned and with good reason. His .265 average at Bakersfield this season is the best he's seen as a pro, and he doesn't look to be improving much. His power is practically non-existent, as he's only hit 4 long balls in 666 at-bats stateside. His bat will certainly not be winning him any awards. His legs are that of a catcher, and look to be becoming that of a catcher with the last name Molina. He has four career steals against none caught, and I wouldn't waive him around third on a single in any circumstance. Overall, his best tools are by far his defending tools, and his bat will only develop if he improves his weak plate discipline.

Professional Experience: After signing in 2004, Pina was not eligible to start playing until 2005. The Rangers were somewhat aggressive with Pina, bringing him to catch in the Arizona League at age 18, even though they had converted him to catcher just a year before. He struggled with his bat and finished at just .247/.356/.306 in 85 at-bats. He didn't strike out much, and showed some patience, but it was due more to bad pitching than his own eye (he was hit by a pitch eight times). Unfortunately, Pina succumbed to Tommy John surgery at that point, with his conversion to catcher a likely cause. This caused him to miss most of 2006. He did manage to get in 45 at-bats late in the campaign, and he hit .244/.300/.333. 2007 was a key year of development for Pina, as his main goal was to get healthy and have a full season of development. In those areas, he was successful. He spent the entire year behind the plate for Clinton, catching 84 of the 86 games he played in. His bat continued to be behind his glove, and he finished at .228/.278/.285 in 281 at-bats. Amazingly, he only struck out 28 times over the course of the season. However, that was equaled out by his even lower number of walks (15). Pina entered 2008 at a crossroads, as he entered the season needing to improve at the plate to see any sort of future as a baseball player.

2008 Season: Pina's season has seen improvement in most facets of his game. Behind the plate, Pina has continued steady development into the premier defensive option at the lower minor league levels. At the dish, Pina's raised his average significantly, and he was at .265/.313/.359 for Bakersfield before his call-up to Frisco just a short time ago. He's continued to be a tough batter to strike out, as he's only gone down 28 times in 255 at-bats between two levels, just barely more often than last year at Clinton. He's once again only walked 15 times, and his plate discipline continues to be a concern. However, with his average rising, he is starting to put his plus hand-eye coordination into more hard-hit balls, raising his batting average on balls in play. With about a month to go in the season (including playoffs), Pina will try to finish strong at AA.

Future Outlook: Pina's outlook is still that of a backup catching option at the big league level. With a strong finish this season, he'll raise his value to the organization quite a bit. He looks to be ticketed for Frisco to start next season, and we'll see if his hand-eye coordination plays out against better pitching. If he continues to improve, he might play himself into being a catcher in the Einar Diaz mold. If not, he can be a good option for a backup catcher, as his defense is universally seen as his main asset.

Profile Coming Next: RHP Brennan Garr

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Kyle O'Campo

2008-08-08T07:00:00.000-04:00

Throws: Right
Height/Weight: 6'3''/195
Birthday: 9/9/1988 (Age 19)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2011 Season

Background: Kyle O'Campo scared away a lot of teams with his Cal State Fullerton commitment prior to the 2007 draft. However, the Rangers signed him for an above-slot amount of $250,000, a high number for a 13th round selection. Baseball America ranked the righty as the 123rd-best prospect in all of baseball for the 2007 draft, so slipping to the 13th round was obviously a result of his commitment to the Titans. Scouts saw O'Campo as slightly below the top tier of pitching talent for the draft mainly due to mechanics and command. Scouts wondered if he could turn his motion into a consistent strike-throwing one, but the Rangers saw a pitcher with a ton of potential and talent.

Pitches: O'Campo features three pitches, with a fourth being available in necessity. His plus pitch is his fastball, which has normally sat at 88-91, but has reportedly reached 95. It's likely he'll sit somewhere around 92 when all is said and done, as he does not control the faster offerings nearly as well. His best secondary offering is his slider, which usually sits in the mid-70s. It doesn't really look like he commands it exceptionally well, but as he gains experience, look for this pitch to possibly become a plus pitch. The last, and most underdeveloped, pitch O'Campo throws is his changeup, which has been emphasized under the Rangers' pitcher development program. Being his weakest pitch, he uses it mainly to keep hitters off balance, with its command being below-average at this point. It can develop into an average for O'Campo. The last pitch that's available for use is his curveball, which underwhelmed scouts leading up to the draft last year. If O'Campo can command his main three pitches, he's a starting pitching candidate. If he cannot, look for a move to the bullpen as he moves up the ladder.

Professional Experience: 2008 is O'Campo's first pro experience.

2008 Season: O'Campo did not pitch competitively following his late signing last year, so 2008 was slated to be his first pro experience. He did get experience in the instructional league in the fall. Out of spring training, O'Campo was assigned to stay back in Surprise for extra months of a pitching program aimed at limiting his innings in his first full pro season. This has become commonplace for Ranger high school draftees, with Kasey Kiker, Blake Beavan, and Michael Main being products of that system (Main was also limited by injury). When he finally broke camp, he was assigned to the same place, the Arizona League. So far, the experience has been a good one for O'Campo. In 35 innings, he's flashed a 3.86 ERA with hitters only hitting at a .227 pace against him. He's struck out 37 hitters over that time frame, and only walked 10, a testament to the hard work he's put in at commanding his pitches since entering the organization. He's allowed 3 home runs so far, which might be of some concern, but it can possibly be chalked up to getting back into competitive games for the first time in a calendar year. His splits show lefties only hitting slightly better than righties, so it looks as if he's improving his changeup as time goes along, meaning he should stick as a starter for the time being. Overall, if O'Campo finishes up strong, 2008 will be a total positive for the young pitcher.

Future Outlook: O'Campo's future is as a starting pitching prospect for the time being. If he finishes pretty strong, he'll find himself on the opening day roster for Clinton next spring at age 20, another success story for the Rangers' player development program. He pitched quite a lot in high school, so we'll have to see how his arm holds up over a long season, but his frame seems to suggest he can withstand the rigors of pitching. His motion might lead to future injuries, but as with all pitchers, it's highly individualized. Look for him to move up one step at a time over the next couple of years as he builds up innings. His ceiling is probably as a #3 starter, though that is really pushing it. He can be a useful starter, however, and if his secondary pitches don't develop as well, his plus fastball and average slider can be an asset in the bullpen.

Profile Coming Next: C Manny Pina

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - David Murphy

2008-08-07T07:00:00.000-04:00

Position: Outfield
Hits/Throws: Left/Left
Height/Weight: 6'4''/205
Birthday: 10/18/1981 (Age 26)
Roster Status: On 15-day DL and 40-man Roster; Eligible for Arbitration after 2010 Season

Background: David Murphy was a highly-regarded college outfielder when he was drafted 17th overall by the Boston Red Sox in the 2003 draft out of Baylor. However, he began to be noticed at age nine while throwing a tennis ball against a wall. Scouts supposedly videotaped the young Murphy for future reference. Murphy began excelling soon after when he pitched and played outfield for Klein High School in Spring, TX (most of you know where Klein is). The Bearkats won the 1998 state title, and Murphy excelled enough to get drafted two years later in the 50th round by the Angels. As with almost all 50th rounders, Murphy didn't sign and instead chose to attend Baylor, which he chose over Texas A&M and Rice. He started immediately at Baylor his freshman year, and legitimately impressed the Big 12 world with a .271/.361/.457 line in 199 at-bats. He showed good plate discipline and had six assists mainly in right field, showing off that touted arm. His sophomore season was clouded by a late start due to a broken hand, an injury that usually saps power for up to a year after the injury. Murphy started slowly, but ended up at .318/.385/.526 in 173 at-bats. After a strong Cape Cod League showing the following summer, Murphy's draft status was on the rise. A strong junior season only helped that status, as Murphy went .413/.487/.614 in 293 at-bats, including 11 home runs. A great 22-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio put him on the radar of many teams wanting polished college bats, and he signed quickly for $1.525 million.

Tools: Murphy's main tool coming into the pros was his hit tool, as evidenced by his .413 average his junior year at Baylor. His first pro experience seemed to emphasize that as he hit .346 in 78 at-bats for Lowell in the New York-Penn League. However, at all levels since that debut, Murphy had not hit above .280 until his combined .343 last year in 105 big league at-bats. He is consistently in the .270s. Therefore, I'm going to say that his hit tool has degraded to the point of being average. The Red Sox drafted him with the idea that he might develop power, as his frame is indeed capable of doing so. However, until this year, he's never hit more than 14 home runs over any season. Overall, his power tool is about average, as well. As for speed, he's never been known as a burner. He is average again in that category, and his career high for steals sits at 13. In the field, Murphy's glove has usually been solid, and he has good range for a corner outfielder. However, he's not a center fielder by any means. He has shown a tendency for errors in the high minors, but has been dependable so far in the majors, so we'll see if it was just fields that contributed to 14 errors in 2007 in the minors. His arm is probably the only thing that is indisputably above-average. Murphy's experience on the pitching rubber helped him get noticed, and his arm has continued to impress. He's begun to consistently have high assist numbers since his arrival in the high minors, and his arm is most definitely his plus tool. As for strike zone judgment, Murphy has been hard to strike out, but is increasingly hard to walk. He knows the strike zone, but is more likely to swing at the borderline pitches early in the count, a developing weakness for him. Overall, he's a truly average outfielder with little room for improvement.

Professional Experience: Considering his pedigree as a college outfielder in the 2003 draft, it's surprising that 2008 is Murphy's first full season at the Major League level. Following his quick signing, Murphy excelled short-season A ball for Lowell in the Boston organization, hitting .346/.457/.397 in 78 at-bats, earning a quick promotion to the Florida State League with Sarasota. In 153 at-bats there, his tools did not play out, and he ended at .242/.329/.307. The first short season of pro ball is usually an adjustment period for college bats, so it's not surprising he didn't hit for power. However, he returned to the Florida State League in 2004, and continued to struggle. He did struggle with injuries that year, including a left foot sprain that knocked him out for two months in the middle of the season. A final line of .261/.323/.346 is not what you want to see from a first-round college outfielder, but the Red Sox nevertheless promoted him to AA Portland to start the 2005 season. With a full season of health, Murphy produced at a line that has become familiar to us this year. He finished .275/.337/.430 in 484 at-bats for the Red Sox' Eastern League affiliate, a great improvement against better pitching. Murphy returned to Portland to start the 2006 season, but earned a promotion after 172 at-bats of similar production to 2005. His first AAA experience was also quite similar, ending with a .267/.355/.447 line, the main improvement being his OBP. 2007 saw Murphy back in AAA with Pawtucket, and he hit .280/.347/.423 in 400 at-bats before the trade to Texas at the July deadline for Eric Gagne with Kason Gabbard and Engel Beltre. The Rangers moved him almost immediately to the big leagues, and Murphy started most of the games down the stretch in left field. Amazingly, he hit .340/.382/.534 for the Rangers over that stretch, his third stint in the bigs, though his first as a starter. As you can see, Murphy has been consistently average over his career, and he entered 2008 as a starter for the Rangers.

2008 Season: 2008 had been kind to David Murphy until his collision with Pudge Rodriguez last week. Murphy was putting together one of his trademark lines over the first full Major League season, which likely ended at .275/.321/.465 with that collision. Splitting the season between the corner outfield spots, Murphy has been a solid, if unspectacular, fielder, hitter, and baserunner. If not for his unusually high RBI count, he probably would not get much attention, but when you hit 15 homers and drive in 74 in just 108 games, you get some attention as Rookie of the Year. However, Murphy's season is likely done, as most PCL injuries of that kind take six weeks to recover from, and then require rehab stints to regain playing form. If the Rangers bring back Murphy in September, it will likely be to get him at-bats before the season ends, as there is no reason to rush him back in a race the Rangers will likely lose. Murphy's 2008 has been encouraging, as we now know he can continue his solid performance over the course of a Major League season.

Future Outlook: Murphy is likely to see a few years as a corner outfielder with the Rangers. He doesn't hit left-handed pitching well, so he will always need a right-handed partner to help him out on days southpaws take the hill. Once his days as a starter are over, Murphy's solid bat and glove can fit as a fourth outfielder quite well in either league. His strong arm will probably last for another 3-4 years before starting to fade, and I see him usually hovering around .270 for years to come.

Profile Coming Next: RHP Kyle O'Campo

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Joseph Ortiz

2008-08-06T07:00:00.000-04:00

Throws: Left
Height/Weight: 5'7''/175
Birthday: 8/13/1990 (Age 17)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2011 season

Background: Joseph Ortiz debuted last year in the Dominican Summer League before his 17th birthday. His small size led him to go under the radar during the 2006 international signing period to some extent. Ortiz is originally from Venezuela's capital, Caracas. Venezuelan pitching has become more popular in recent years with the success of pitchers like Carlos Zambrano and Johan Santana. Santana is the mold some have seen Ortiz as filling, though Santana is listed as five inches and twenty pounds heavier than Ortiz. Overall, he was signed due to his stuff and control potential rather than his potential for size.

Pitches: Ortiz throws three pitches, the usual arsenal of a starter. His fastball is rated as average for a lefty pitcher, with its usual range in the low 90s. He rarely is reported to throw more than 91 on the gun, so his fastball is more based on location than velocity. His best pitch is his slider, which has the potential to be a plus pitch. The most unknown of the pitches is his changeup, which is his most unpredictable pitch. He has thrown some strong changeups, though, so it might have the potential to be a quality offering. If Ortiz continues to pitch in relief (which is a strong possibility), look for him to drop his changeup if it takes time to develop.

Professional Experience: Ortiz began his pro career with the Rangers in the Dominican Summer League last year. In 18 games with the team, he pitched 26.2 innings in relief, finishing 15 of his 18 appearances. In a strong pitching league, Ortiz had a low 2.70 ERA with excellent peripherals, striking out 38 batters while only walking 8. With a WHIP of only 1.09 while pitching most of the year at age 16, Ortiz was most impressive.

2008 Season: Ortiz began the year at extended spring training, as a full-season league was likely out of the question for the 17 year-old. When the time for the short-season leagues came around, Ortiz was assigned to pitch for the AZL Rangers. However, he only pitched in one game in Surprise before an unexpected promotion to Clinton. So far at Clinton, Ortiz has done nothing but excel. In 19 innings over 14 relief appearances, he has only allowed 4 earned runs, striking out 13 and walking 8. He has struggled a bit with his control, but most of that occurred early on after his promotion. The biggest plus of the campaign seems to be the fact that he's only allowed 10 hits since his promotion (none have left the yard). Overall, his season has far exceeded expectations.

Future Outlook: Ortiz has the possibility to move quickly if he stays in the bullpen. Given his size, a bullpen stay would probably be the best for both Ortiz and the Rangers. Look for Ortiz to start off the year back at Clinton next year with a chance to find his way to Bakersfield if he continues to succeed. He turns 18 next week, so no matter what happens over the year or two, he's still ahead of the curve. The Rangers will likely use Ortiz in a highly scheduled manner, with him pitching every 3 or 4 days. He might work up to 3 innings in an outing, but don't expect much more from him. Ortiz' long-term outlook is that of a lefty setup man, with no more to be expected of him. He is not Billy Wagner, but he could be a quality reliever in about 3-4 years in Arlington.

Profile Coming Tomorrow: OF David Murphy

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Dennis Guinn

2008-08-05T07:00:00.000-04:00

Position: First Base
Hits/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6'1''/210
Birthday: 8/2/1985 (Age 23)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2011 Season

Background: Guinn came to the Rangers as a 17th round draft pick in this year's draft. He was signed quickly by scout Guy DeMutis, the scout who covers Florida for the Rangers and is responsible for signing Eric Hurley and Michael Main. Guinn's reputation entering the Rangers' organization is that of a polished college power hitter. He entered Florida State from Winter Haven High School, where he led the team to a second place finish in the state playoffs (with the help of teammate Dustin Bamberg, a 34th rounder to the Cubs that year, though he didn't sign). He was a consistent hitter with some pop in high school, though he flew under the radar enough to not be drafted. Guinn continued to fly under scouts' radars at Florida State after just getting 11 at-bats his freshman year. However, he began to be noticed during his sophomore year, where he was the starting first baseman for the Seminoles. Over the course of that year, he managed to hit .335 with 12 home runs and 69 RBI in 60 games. He also had a respectable 31-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The knock on Guinn was his defense, where he committed 12 errors in those 60 games in the field, with only a .979 fielding percentage, low for a first baseman. Had he had a similar year in 2007, his junior year at Florida State, Guinn would have been a draft prospect, though not a high-round one. However, Guinn struggled with a position move that likely seeped into his performance at the plate. Playing left field, Guinn suffered a tear to his PCL, and was not himself after a re-aggravation later in the year. He finished with a .286 average and only 5 home runs and 37 RBI in 45 games. This disappointment was enough for him to not get drafted and return for his senior year. Guinn certainly turned around his performance that year, where the Seminoles put him back at first base. In 68 starts, Guinn finished at .332, with 19 home runs and 76 RBI to his credit. He did show improved defense, though 10 errors is not especially great. Overall, he was drafted due to his bat, which showed power potential, and his batting eye.

Tools: Since Guinn has not been in professional baseball for very long, his tools are known more by scouts than outsiders. As evidenced by his power numbers, he grades out fairly well for raw power. His ability to hit for average is in doubt, as evidenced by his sophomore year struggles. He capped out at .335 in college, so a realistic year should be in the .270s at best. As for fielding, Guinn has shown some struggles over the years. The error totals have been consistently high, and that has continued at Spokane. In 29 games at first, he's already committed 5 errors, and he must improve that greatly to even be a pro first baseman. As of this point, his arm is relatively unknown. In his sophomore year playing left field for the Seminoles, he did have four outfield assists in 30 starts, but that could be due to a variety of reasons. His speed is below-average, and he never stole more than four bases in college. His best chance is to be a smart baserunner, as his speed will not play out against Major League arms.

Professional Experience: 2008 is his first professional season.

2008 Season: Guinn's transition to pro baseball has been relatively smooth to this point. As expected, his average has been around .260, and it currently sits at .265. He is striking out a bit more than in college, but his eye is still playing out, with 17 walks in 30 games, good for a .377 OBP. He isn't showing too much of his power, but that can be due to many reasons, including the transition from metal to wood bats. His slugging percentage is .460, and he can easily raise that in the final month of the season. Overall, his pro debut has been a positive one, as he hasn't struggled too much in translating his skills to pro ball.

Future Outlook: Guinn possibly has a chance to start next year at Bakersfield if he finishes up the year strong. However, both Mitch Moreland and Mauro Gomez are possibilities for the first base job at Bakersfield next year, so I expect Guinn to be at first base in Clinton to start out the year next year. If he starts showing his power potential, he can move quickly within a system that is starting to get crowded at first base. This is pure speculation, but the Rangers could try Guinn back in left field again. However, in the long run, it's his bat that will get Guinn moved along. In my opinion, Guinn's ceiling is that of a good pinch-hitter and DH option. If not, he can be a good organizational soldier until the team finds a space for him.

Profile Coming Tomorrow: LHP Joseph Ortiz

Don't forget to check Rangers Rosters Update for current Ranger roster moves across all affiliations.

Player Profile - Tommy Hunter

2008-08-04T07:00:00.000-04:00

Throws: Right
Height/Weight: 6'3''/255
Birthday: 7/3/1986 (Age 22)
Roster Status: 25- and 40-man Roster, 3 options remaining

Background: Tommy Hunter came to the Rangers just last year, signing as a supplemental first-round pick (54th overall). A draft-eligible sophomore from the University of Alabama, he was considered to be a high-round pick after just two seasons there. Hunter was a highly scouted player out of high school as well, having been drafted out of Cathedral High School in Indianapolis in the 18th round by Tampa Bay. The Rays' next pick was Arizona high school product Ike Davis, a first-round pick by the Mets this year out of Arizona State. Hunter was a two-time all-city player of the year in Indianapolis, and his team finished number five in the state with a 28-5 record his senior year. The thing that stood out about Hunter was that, despite his body mold, he was a two-time junior Olympic champion in judo. Once at Alabama, Hunter impressed the Alabama coaching staff enough to earn a rotation spot his freshman year. Over 20 games (16 starts) during his freshman year, he won 10 games and pitched 117.1 innings, Alabama single-season freshman records. That earned him a spot on the cover of the Alabama media guide for his sophomore year. Further recognition came following his successful bullpen stint with Team USA that summer, where he earned a gold medal. His sophomore season saw Hunter working double duty as a starter and occasional closer for the Tide, appearing in 26 games (11 starts) and earning a 7-5 record and 3.87 ERA. He managed to rack up 107 innings over those outings. Scouts saw him as a bullpen or back-end rotation filler as the draft began, and the Rangers ended up signing him for $585,000 following his selection.

Pitches: Scouts thought Hunter would be a two-pitch bullpen specialist entering the draft in 2007. However, he's quickly proving he has enough of a repertoire to be a starting pitcher in the Majors. Hunter's fastball is somewhat average, sitting in the low 90s most of the time. In his first start at the big league level, he sat mainly at 92, while reaching 95 in the first inning. He did lose a little velocity as the game went on, and you hope that it was due to the heat and a falloff of adrenaline as the game went on. Hunter's second primary pitch is his plus curveball, which shows excellent life while remaining close to the zone. It's of the hard curve variety, usually sitting in the low 80s with even more movement when it is at 78 or 79. His curveball is easily his best pitch for getting Major League outs. His final pitch is a developing changeup. It has a lot of cut to it, sometimes being confused for a cutter itself. It usually sits only about 5-6 mph under his fastball, but is enough to stay effective against left-handed hitters. It has potential to become an average big-league pitch, but at the moment, it is considered his weakest offering.

Professional Experience: Hunter's workload was managed closely last year following his signing. He was assigned to Spokane, and only racked up 17.2 innings in 10 relief appearances there. It was hard to get a feel for how he would be as a starter, but he was an effective reliever in the Northwest League, posting a 2.55 ERA there with a 0.91 WHIP. He also struck out 13 in those 17.2 innings. He was at instructs last year, and a slight adjustment to his motion has improved his pitches. Entering 2008, his transition to starter was expected to be his main adjustment to professional baseball.

2008 Season: Hunter's 2008 season has been better than expected. Having started the year in the rotation at Bakersfield, he only needed nine starts to reach AA Frisco. He got decisions in each of those starts, going 5-4 over 58.1 innings with a 3.55 ERA in the hitter-friendly Cal League. Double-A is supposed to be the level where talented players face their first opposition. However, Hunter needed one less start in Double-A than at High-A. In eight starts at Frisco, he posted a 4-2 record in 52.1 innings, sporting a 3.78 ERA. He continued to move fast after that, reaching Oklahoma and making five starts there. With a 2-2 record in those starts, he was promoted to Texas, and made his first big league start Friday against Toronto. While he allowed two home runs to the relatively powerless Jays, he was effective in a small strike zone over five innings. At this point, with 149 innings under his belt, it should be expected that he moves to a bullpen role as starters return from injuries. The Rangers likely don't want to burn Hunter's first option this year, so they'll manage his innings at the big league level or demote him and recall him September 1 (less than 20 days on a minor league roster means no option is used).

Future Outlook: Hunter still profiles as a back-end innings-eater for a number of years. Being only 22, the Rangers need to manage his innings so that his health does not become a problem. If managed correctly, Hunter's ceiling could be as a #3 starter in a Joe Blanton mold. If starting doesn't work out as hoped, he still has two strong pitches with which he can become a force in the bullpen. He will likely compete for a rotation spot in Texas during Spring Training next March, but don't be surprised if he's sent to Oklahoma to start the year if he doesn't shine during 2008's final months.

Profile Coming Tomorrow: 1B Dennis Guinn

Rangers Rosters Update

2008-08-03T20:05:00.000-04:00

I've decided to set up a second site solely dedicated to the roster moves of the Texas Rangers and their affiliates. Analysis of each move will be placed there in a similar way to Baseball Prospectus' "Transaction Analysis" posts. The site can be found here. It will be updated daily with moves throughout the system.

-Andy

Minor League Preview - August 2008

2008-08-03T15:00:00.000-04:00

Here's some quick notes about the upcoming month on the farm. Emphasis for August will be placed on finishing up the year strong, with all affiliates winding their schedules down.

Oklahoma: The Redhawks enter the day 9 games up in the PCL American South division with 29 games to play. The remaining schedule includes 4 against Tucson, 4 at Albuquerque, 4 at Nashville, 4 against Omaha, 5 against Iowa, 4 at Round Rock, and 4 at Memphis. What's lacking is any games against their division rival New Orleans, the team currently sitting in second. Only Iowa and Memphis have winning records (they sit 1-2 in the American North), and Oklahoma currently sits 3.5 back of Iowa and 1 ahead of Memphis for the best record in the American. With 20 games remaining against sub-.500 teams, expect Oklahoma to finish strong.

Frisco: The RoughRiders won their division in the first half with a 43-27 record. With a playoff spot already in tow, they lead their division again in the second half, albeit by only a game. Frisco has 28 games remaining, 6 at San Antonio, 6 games split home and home against Tulsa, 6 games split home and home against Northwest Arkansas, 6 games split home and home against Midland, and 4 at home against Corpus Christi. San Antonio, Northwest Arkansas, and Midland each have winning records this half, so it will be a tough stretch run. However, with the playoffs already assured, the 'Riders should have no problem playing well.

Bakersfield: The Blaze have played 18-24 ball in the second half, good enough for last place in the CAL North division. They are still only 6.5 games back of first-place Modesto, but with only 28 games to play, it looks like Bakersfield will not have any division crowns this year. They finished the first half at 36-34, and they have not gained enough ground to get into the playoffs as the team with best record not to win a division crown. Their remaining games pit them against teams with better second-half records. Look for the Blaze to fight hard, but come up short this year. Certain Blaze players possibly will be in Frisco for the playoffs.

Clinton: The LumberKings have been playing ball much like the big league club in the second half. They've been sitting around .500 for most of the half, and their current record is 22-20. That puts them 2.5 games back of Burlington with 28 games to play. If the 'Kings go on a hot streak like the first half, that's a margin they can easily make up. By winning their division in that first half, they've already sewn up a playoff spot. Look for Clinton to play increasingly well as they head toward the playoffs next month.

Spokane: The Indians are well on their way to a division title Northwest League's Eastern division. With a 33-12 record, the young Spokane pitching staff has given their team a 5 game cushion with 31 games to play. 12 of those games are against the second-place Boise team that threatens their title (6 in Spokane, 6 in Boise). With 11 games between Spokane and third-place Tri-City, the race will depend on those 12 games against the Cubs' Northwest League affiliate. If the pitching staff holds up and Neil Ramirez comes back soon, Spokane should secure a division title.

AZL Rangers: The baby Rangers finished their first half with a 17-11 record, good enough for third place, 4 games behind the Angels' Arizona League affiliate. So far in the second half, the Rangers have a perfect 6-0 record, putting them 2 games up already in the standings. With 22 games remaining, the Rangers will look to sew up a division title, although their roster keeps getting moved around due to rehab assignments and promotions. If the roster keeps changing like it is, it won't be hard for the other teams to catch the Rangers before the end of the year.

Player Profile - John Whittleman

2008-08-01T07:00:00.000-04:00

Position: Third Base
Hits/Throws: Left/Right
Height/Weight: 6'2''/195
Birthday: 2/11/1987 (Age 21)
Roster Status: Rule V Eligible after 2009 Season

Background: John Whittleman came to the Rangers from Kingwood High in the second round of the 2005 draft. While there, he led the team to the 5-A Texas state championship just weeks before he was drafted. The Rangers had to pry Whittleman away from a UT commitment, but he ended being signed quickly for a reported $650,000 by scout Randy Taylor. He played shortstop in high school, but he was immediately moved to third base in the pros. Overall, his hyped background coming to the Rangers was because of his bat, one that projected well for average and for gap power.

Tools: Whittleman's tools have evolved slightly from where they were when the Rangers drafted him three years ago. From a classic scouting standpoint, his main tool was seen to be an ability to hit for average. However, as we've seen, he's never hit .280 at any minor league level, and he's struggling with his average at Bakersfield this year. However, his gap power ability has improved to more genuine home run power. Despite his low number this year, he's made some progress, hitting a combined 17 last year. His fielding tool should be considered average for a third baseman, with his range being the main reason he was moved off of shortstop at the beginning of his pro career. He's made tons of errors, but those are to be taken with a grain of salt, as minor league errors can have many causes. His arm is of the average to above-average variety, and is sometimes the cause for his errors. His speed is below-average, and his stolen base percentages have been dropping steadily to the point where he has none this year in two attempts. Within the "seven skills" perspective, his strike zone judgment is good to a fault. He strikes out a lot and walks a lot, surprising given his young age. Minor League umpires aren't known for their consistent strike zones, so I give Whittleman some credit for strikeouts he might not have earned and walks he should have gotten. The other "seven skills" part missing is his fielding reliability, and as I said with his true fielding skill, he is just not to the point where he can be reliable at third. As with all talented youngsters, he's going to make mistakes with the arm and the head, while he's going to make some outstanding plays with the glove and miss routine ones. He's developing, but you hope to see improvement soon.

Professional Experience: Whittleman came out of the gate pretty strongly in 2005 in the Arizona League. Baseball America named him the #5 prospect in that league following the season. His numbers included a .279 average and .393 OBP, however he only slugged .426 over 190 at-bats including zero home runs. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was excellent, with 42 strikeouts to 35 walks. 2006 was not as kind to Whittleman. Tabbed with a full-season assignment at age 19, he struggled all year, finishing at .227 with only a .313 OBP and .343 SLG. His strike-zone judgment stayed strong, but his power was again down, and his strikeouts a tad on the high side. The Rangers decided that Whittleman would repeat Clinton in 2007, but he didn't stay there all season. Aided by Lasik surgery in the offseason, he hit his way out of Clinton with 14 homers in 336 at-bats, a drastic improvement. He hit .271, but his OBP was a dramatically-improved .382 and he slugged at a .476 clip. He did commit 29 errors in just 85 games at third (compared to 34 in 121 games in 2006), but the Rangers thought his bat was ready for Bakersfield, so he was promoted to Bakersfield at the end of July, despite being in a major slump at the time. He rounded out the year hitting .240/.372/.413 at Bakersfield, a testament to his plate discipline. He only got in 104 at-bats, but the experience was valuable to Whittleman, being only 20 in a league full of those much older than he. He made only 5 errors over 29 games at third for Bakersfield, so there was hope he was starting to improve entering this season.

2008 Season: The 2008 season has been a mixed bag for John Whittleman. Repeating the Cal League at age 21, he was expected to have a performance similar to his repeat season at Clinton in 2007. However, he's once again struggled in the field and has been streaky at the plate. Through 95 games at third, he's committed 27 errors, though his range factor has improved slightly over previous years. At the plate, he's hitting a disappointing .243 in 382 at-bats, with a .364 OBP and .374 SLG. His power is obviously lacking at this point in time, while his patience seems to be becoming a bit of a problem. His strikeouts stayed high, though he has a chance to find a walk number of close to 100 by the end of the season. It's highly doubtful that he'll be promoted to Frisco by the end of the season, despite the fact that Frisco has no third base prospect. That's how disappointing his season has been so far.

Future Outlook: John Whittleman has the skills to be an average big league third baseman. His patience is his one plus aspect, but his power will truly need to develop going forward to be a fit for a corner infield spot. He needs to focus on getting on-base with his bat to really improve, as pitchers will take advantage of his lack of aggressiveness at the plate at higher levels. After all, pitchers at higher levels can usually throw more strikes (and more quality strikes). He has the tools to hit for average, so that might come around as he faces tougher pitching. However, his glove has been a major disappointment. I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved off of third at some point, with left field probably being the destination. He just makes too many errors, whether you're using the minors as the asterisk or not. It's likely he'll repeat Bakersfield to start off 2009. He needed 936 plate appearances to get out of the Midwest League, so that might be the case for the Cal League. I'm going to say he's not the third baseman of the future for the big league club, but might be a serviceable hiter in the Frank Catalanotto mold for a number of years if he starts to take the bat off his shoulders more.

Profile Coming Monday: RHP Tommy Hunter

Trade Deadline Wrap-Up

2008-07-31T13:21:00.000-04:00

I'm going to give a quick run-down of the deals made over the last few weeks and the impact each player may have on their club this year and in the future. Deadline day deals will be added tomorrow.

1. July 7 - CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson and PTBNL

This trade might be the biggest July deal, and it happened over three weeks ago. Cleveland wanted to trade its ace for a better return than the two draft picks it would have received for compensation had he left this offseason. Milwaukee gave up what I consider to be roughly equal to that. LaPorta is an elite young hitter. However, he is already 23 and is still at AA. Since LaPorta was drafted after his senior year at Florida, he started his pro career at last a year later than most other first-round products, and that has an affect on the speed by which a player can make an impact in the majors. However, there's no doubt he can hit, so he's a good prospect in return for an ace. The other two players named so far in the deal are of the less well-known variety. Zach Jackson was in the Dave Bush-Lyle Overbay deal after the 2005 season, and I was high on him at that point. However, the Texas A&M product has disappointed and is currently in his fourth stint at AAA. He's still only 25, but the quadruple-A cap might be coming. Rob Bryson is the upside arm in the deal, being only 20 and pitching in the Sally League. His numbers have been good, and he has time to develop, so his eventual performance might determine who wins on this deal. The player to be named will also go on to determine the winner.

2. July 8 - Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and Josh Donaldson

Just a day after CC Sabathia got traded, another high-end arm was moved in Rich Harden. If healthy, Rich Harden is a truly elite pitcher. I would pick him to be in my starting rotation if I could choose any five starters in the entire bigs. However, his health has been a huge question mark for quite a long time. That is likely the reason why Gaudin was in the deal too. If Harden breaks down, Gaudin takes his place. Given the chance of Harden breaking down on his watch, Billy Beane sold for a questionable package. However, 3 of the 4 players have already seen Oakland, and I don't seen this deal as one-sided as people believe. If Rich Harden turns out to be a career Kerry Wood, the A's will win on this deal. The odds of that happening are pretty close to 50-50. Sean Gallagher has been rumored to be in a number of trades for almost a year now, and he's now the headliner in the Rich Harden return. At 22 years old, he's never posted an ERA above the 3.39 he posted in 11 starts at AA Tennessee at age 21. He understandably struggled in 8 relief appearances last year for the Cubs, but this year he's combined for a 4-4 record with a 4.11 ERA in 16 games (14 starts) in the bigs. That's very impressive for a kid his age. I may be one of the few that like him as the main return in this trade. Matt Murton was also in trade rumors over the offseason. As it stands now, he is a Major League hitter. He has always hit well at every level, including the majors. It's obvious that the Cubs' treatment of him has affected him this year, but I see him coming around again to be a solid left field option for the A's in the coming years. Eric Patterson is a Georgia Tech product (like Murton), and has patterned himself in a similar way. He hits for average with good patience and average power. If he can replace Mark Ellis at second next year, this deal can start to turn in favor of the A's. The final piece is catcher Josh Donaldson. After his pro debut at Boise last year, he looked to be all about the hit tool, as well. However, he's struggled at Peoria this season, and his stock dropped significantly. However, his bat is high-end, and if he stays at catcher, he can be a steal for the A's.

3. July 17 - Joe Blanton for Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matt Spencer

Oakland struck again with the third major trade of a big league starter in ten days. Blanton has been the definition of solid for the A's over three and a half seasons, starting 33, 31, 34, and then 20 games over that time. Posting solid ERAs and peripherals, he's in line to be a great innings-eater for years to come. He's still only 27, which means he theoretically has three more seasons left in his peak performance window, meaning the Phillies are big winners if they can keep him for that entire window. He's scheduled to reach free agency after 2010. The A's return for Blanton was also received a little badly by most writers. Cardenas is a 21 year-old second baseman playing at high-A. He has a good hit tool and is a smart baserunner (16-16 in SB attempts), but he lacks power projection. His age is a big plus considering the level at which he's playing, but you would hope his bat starts to come around and come together with his solid fielding. Outman is a lefty that converted to relief pitching this year at AA. He's almost 24, and the A's are converting him back to starting, so I don't expect too much from him. He was pitching well in the Eastern League at the time of the trade, but has been shelled in his first two starts for Midland. He's nothing more than a fringe starting prospect. Spencer is an outfielder who had his pro debut just last year. He's struggled with his hitting, and he generally doesn't walk a lot, so he has a ways to go. The A's have begun a transition to first base for Spencer, and he's made two errors in 10 games there for high-A Stockton. To be transitioning two key pieces in a major trade right away is risky, so I'm not sure that the A's got enough for Blanton.

4. July 20 - Ray Durham for Steve Hammond and Darren Ford

Ray Durham has become a Jeff Kent-type second baseman with less power. He is no longer a real stolen base threat, and he has to rely completely on his on-base skills, as his average power has started to dip to below-average. However, there's no doubt he can be a valuable hitter on a competing team. He's been to the postseason with three different teams, and he's 36, so his leadership is an equally important asset to consider when evaluating this deal. The Giants were basically hoping to get a fair return, and they might have done so. Lefty pitcher Steve Hammond is already 26, but he's showing he can succeed at the high-minors. He reached AAA for the first time this year, and has been average at AA and AAA. If he transitions to a relief role from his current role of starting, he could be a valuable specialist in the Ron Mahay mold. Darren Ford is an outfielder currently playing in high-A. He's 22, so his age is on the fringe prospect level. He's struggled mightily with his bat in 755 high-A plate appearances, so his speed seems to be his only tool. He's currently at 53 steals for the year, so say hello to the poor man's Freddy Guzman. I credit the Brewers for finding a piece for a playoff run without giving up too much in return.

5. July 22 - Jon Rauch for Emilio Bonifacio

I have yet to read an account of this trade that favors the Nationals. Everyone is down on Washington GM Jim Bowden lately, and this seems to be just one more thing for his opponents to point to. However, you have to remember that the Nationals are not playing for anything within the next few years. It's pretty much inconceivable that they'll win anytime before 2011 or 2012, so getting a longer-term cheap second baseman might be a good thing. Bonifacio is 23, and his hitting has steadily improved at each level in the minors. Having reached AAA this year, he's poised to move in the second base role in Washington as soon as the path is cleared. He has almost no power to speak of, but his speed is praised. His fielding has also gotten steadily better, so I'm ready to anoint him the next Aaron Hill. There's no doubt that Jon Rauch is a quality reliever. However, if you could trade a club-favored contract reliever for a future second baseman with at least three years of pre-arbitration salaries, would you do it? Rauch turns 30 in about two months, so I would take the second baseman.

6. July 22 - Randy Wolf for Chad Reineke

Does someone need to tell Ed Wade to look at his team's record? Your reply should be that any GM would obviously know his own team's record. However, maybe we need to inform him of other teams' records. Aha! The other teams have won more! Yes Ed, that light bulb going off means you're an idiot. Free agent compensation is based on performance over the last two years before free agency. Randy Wolf made 18 starts last year, and if healthy, will make around 30 before the end of this year. His ERAs have been 4.73 and 4.79. Pretty consistent. If the Elias formula for ranking is indeed total games, innings pitched, wins, winning percentage, ERA, and strikeouts, Randy Wolf will likely not reach Type B status. So basically, Wade gave away Chad Reineke for some expensive Randy Wolf starts. I love it when GMs sell players and spend money for no reason. Reineke is nothing special himself. However, he comes cheaply. He's 26 in AAA, and has been in the mid-4s in ERA, so he's likely just a fifth starter at best. But he's basically free.

7. July 25 - Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen, and Jeff Karstens

This trade was also seen as selling low by the Pirates. Nady has been an excellent hitter thus far for Pittsburgh, so most thought he would fetch a high price. Marte has been in the same boat, though he's four years older than Nady. Therefore, in a package involving both of them, most expected at least a major prospect to change hands. However, the main return, Jose Tabata, has been criticized up and down all season long for a lack of work ethic and a surprising disappearance of tools and projection. Tabata is about to be 20, and while he's playing in AA, he just looks out of place. For someone with so great skills, his numbers just don't play out. The bat is not there, the legs are not there, and he's just been an average right fielder. In other words, the Pirates scouts see something that we don't. I don't see him panning out to be a top-flight outfielder, but he might eventually be a serviceable outfielder in the bigs. Ohlendorf was in the Randy Johnson trade in January 2007, and has shown good stuff with the Yankees. He's a Princeton product, so you know that he'll figure out ways to get people out when the stuff starts to go. Still, he's about to turn 26 and hasn't seen real success in the bigs. He was a reliever with the Yankees, but the Pirates are turning him back into a starter. He can be a possible number four starter somewhat soon. Dan McCutchen is another name we've seen a lot in rumors lately. Being a Yankees prospect, his name was everywhere. However, he's a guy that's almost 26 and still hasn't seen the big leagues. He's put together good seasons at each stop, though he's still perfecting it in AAA. He's always been old for his level, so you have to credit some of his success to that. Even though his name is the big one on the pitching side of this deal, I wouldn't be surprised if his big league career is the worst of the three new Pirates pitchers. Karstens is another guy about to be 26 who hasn't really seen big league success. However, he was putting together a fairly solid season at AAA before the trade. He's dealt with injuries in the past, so he's no sure thing. Overall, I think the Pirates' new acquisitions are too close to their projected primes to improve into solid starting pitchers. Jose Tabata is not a good centerpiece for this deal, and I think the pressure of the mess Dave Littlefield left in Pittsburgh influenced current GM Neal Huntington too much at his first trading deadline.

8. July 26 - Casey Blake for Jon Meloan and Carlos Santana

This is a trade that is likely useful for both sides. The Dodgers get the reliable third baseman they've coveted for the playoff run, and the Indians get a return more likely to make a Major League impact than one or two draft picks in compensation for Blake's departure via free agency this winter. Casey Blake has been a mainstay in the Cleveland lineup since his surprise season in 2003. Having significant time in both right field and at third base added to the potential suitors for him at the deadline, as many teams wanted him to fill an outfield void. However, the Dodgers landed him and his solid bat. They'll get at least a draft pick in compensation, as he'll at least be a Type B free agent this winter. Don't be surprised if his strong season puts him in Type A territory. He's going to be 35 in August, so don't expect the Dodgers to try and sign him to an extension. Meloan was a highly regarded pitcher in the Dodgers system after his 2006 season saw him jump from the Sally League up to AA in less than a season. His ERA at any of his stops never exceeded 2.50 between 2006 and 2007 combined. However, the Dodgers decided to experiment with Meloan this season and move him into a starting role. The results have been mixed, as he was not only trying this full-time for the first time in awhile, but he was also in a bad pitching environment in Las Vegas. Since the trade, the Indians have moved him back into the 'pen, and I expect him to be a quality contributor there for awhile. He's still only 24 and has closer stuff, so look out Kobayashi. Santana seems to have gotten over the hump this year. After a disappointing season last year at Great Lakes (low-A), he's turned it on in the Cal League to a tune of .323/.431/.563 in 350 at-bats. Whether these are inflated by the league remains to be seen. He's still a 22 year-old catching product with raw skills behind the plate, so it's going to be his bat that gets him to the bigs, though that's at least a few years away.

9. July 26 - Anthony Reyes for Luis Perdomo

This was a very minor deal, but it has high upside on either side. Reyes' stock has fallen tremendously over the last few years from the untouchable status he once had. He's now seen as someone that will be 27 in October, and has yet to put it together in the big leagues. The Cardinals tried him in the bullpen, but that didn't seem to work out. The Indians will now use him as a starter, and he's working through kinks at AAA again. His minor league numbers have been good all-around, so he still has a chance to be a solid starter for the Indians once it all clicks (if it does). Perdomo saw his stock rise this year with his success at high-A Kinston. Allowing only 4 earned runs in 39 innings will do that. However, he's already 24, and relief prospects can be hit-or-miss. He's continued his success at double-A so far, but it remains to be seen whether that will translate into big league success down the road. Both teams got slightly older players in this deal, but each one has a chance to make a real big league impact if they put it together.

10. July 29 - Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek

It's becoming clear that Mark Teixeira signed with Scott Boras for a reason. Even though he seems interested in winning, he doesn't seem to be a piece that will actually lead to a winning club. He will put up good numbers with his bat and will be a great first baseman, but he just does not seem to fit with teammates. His loyalty lies with no one, but the Angels are the winners in that, because they get two draft picks this winter. Kotchman has the chance to prove a lot of people wrong now. Often criticized for not hitting for power, Kotchman now gets to show that his skills can translate into a productive first baseman. A consistent hitter, Kotchman's patience parlays into extravagantly low strikeout rates and average slugging percentages. He rarely makes errors at first, and I don't think the Braves infield will skip a beat without Teixeira's glove. Marek is viewed as the key to this deal. His success will determine whether the Braves get production that is better than two draft picks. Pitching out of the bullpen in AA this year, the 24 year-old Marek has enjoyed good success, posting a 3.66 ERA for Arkansas with 57 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. He's a bit old to be a key piece in this trade, but he has the skills to be a back-end reliever for the Braves.

11. July 30 - Ivan Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth

One-for-one this deal looks a bit odd. Pudge is having a better season offensively this year, and he's still throwing out 36% of basestealers at age 36. The Yankees will benefit from Pudge's departure this winter in the form of draft picks. Pudge is almost certainly going to be a Type A this offseason, while Farnsworth is not. If the Tigers don't benefit by somehow sneaking in as the wild card this October, the only plus they get is saving a little money. If Farnsworth does turn out to be a Type B free agent this winter, the Tigers are the clear loser in this deal.

Upcoming Schedule

2008-07-29T20:11:00.001-04:00

I've taken a short break, and I don't plan on full-time writing until the trade deadline is over. I don't want to speculate about deals with no personal information at all. So here's the schedule following Thursday's deadline:

Thursday (post-deadline): Wrap-up of trades around MLB
Friday: Inaugural player profile (John Whittleman)
Saturday: Rangers Rosters Update (to-be daily update)
Sunday: Preview of final minor league month

If there's anything else you'd like to see written, email texasrangersanalyst@gmail.com, and I'll do what I can to see it gets done. Also, tell me who you want to see profiled after Whittleman, as well. I plan on doing profiles pretty much daily during the weekdays, so your input is valuable in seeing who you want to know about.

-Andy

Options

2008-07-27T18:40:00.001-04:00

Baseball, like so many other things in life, is about options. Pitchers with more quality pitches have a greater chance of fooling a batter. If you can throw any pitch for a strike, that option is immensely valuable. When a manager has two quality hitters at the same position, the team benefits from knowing that whoever is out there at any point can hit Major League pitching. However, the most important reason for options in baseball is that no plan works out like it should. Injuries, suspensions, slumps, or any other baseball-related anomaly can change things very quickly. In military circles, it is said that the best plan is one that doesn't rely on everything going exactly right. Baseball is like this, too. This is a major reason why the Rangers have not really succeeded this year. Too many things that the club was counting on to go right have not, and the only plan involving the Rangers winning had everything going right.

The part where I start getting confused is where the Rangers have made some decisions limiting their options for the future. The area I'm talking about is roster management. Following the All-Star break, the Rangers needed another catcher due to injuries. As a result, we saw the debut of UT product Taylor Teagarden. Under Major League rules, Teagarden, if not added to the 40-man roster this November, would be eligible for the Rule V draft. A catcher as highly-regarded defensively as Teagarden would easily be picked up in such a situation. However, the call-up was only for a quick trip in Minnesota, where he was sent down following the series. At the moment, Teagarden is busy adding up days on his first option year. When he reaches 20 days, you can count that option gone. That is almost sure to happen with the Rangers having three other healthy catchers on the 40-man roster (Max Ramirez having been optioned out today). In other words, if Teagarden has a recurrence of injuries and has to use more than a 30-day rehab assignment and an additional 20 days of optional assignment, he's down to just a single option. In addition, some wonder whether he'll hit well enough to be a big league regular. If he struggles badly enough and we have a spare catcher, he might be forced to use another option. So for the Rangers, their decision to add Taylor Teagarden to the 40-man roster for a series in July, it could be costly. They've essentially cut down a year of development time for him. With an open spot on the 40-man roster, Kevin Richardson should have come up and been DFA after the series. An organizational guy, Richardson will be a six-year minor league free agent following the season, so his development is not an issue at this point. Overall, that was honestly botched by the Rangers, and they are now counting on one more thing going right in the future, when they could have had options.

A growing trend I'm seeing with the Rangers now is the trading of some development time for a couple more wins now. Whether it's driven by a desire for ticket sales, a testing of young players, or just short-sightedness, I'm starting to get worried. We had Max Ramirez basically on the bench for a long while, German Duran biding his time on the bench and then expected to hit Major League pitching once or twice a week, and Brandon Boggs basically suffering the same fate. Duran and Boggs had never been above Double-A entering the year, and Ramirez had never even seen Double-A. To mortgage their futures so they can experience the Major Leagues is not a sound decision. With his injury, Duran's season is basically a lost one. Brandon Boggs continues to be the guy who we never see. Max Ramirez lost key time to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the backhanding I'm-too-good-to-block-a-ball "catcher." We may be raving about the talent we've brought in, but unless Jon Daniels and Ron Washington learn how to develop it, we'll consistently be a 80-85 win team, rather than one that can win the AL West.

Rangers and Injuries

2008-07-26T19:26:00.001-04:00

Here's a quick list of Rangers that have been on the Major League or a Minor League disabled list (does not include players no longer with organization):

-Hank Blalock
-Travis Metcalf
-Kason Gabbard
-Dustin Nippert
-Luis Mendoza
-Brandon McCarthy
-Thomas Diamond
-Marlon Byrd
-John Rheinecker
-Eddie Guardado
-Jason Jennings
-Kevin Millwood
-AJ Murray
-Doug Mathis
-Gerald Laird
-Joaquin Benoit
-Eric Hurley
-Vicente Padilla
-Willie Eyre
-Kameron Loe
-Bill White
-Jake Brigham
-Clayton Hamilton
-John Slusarz
-Glenn Swanson
-Chris Dennis
-Jason Hart
-Corey Ragsdale
-Steve Rowe
-Marcus Lemon
-Brennan Garr
-Josh Giles
-Omar Poveda
-Matt Harrison
-David Paisano
-Beau Jones
-Drew Meyer
-Carlos Dominguez
-Cristian Santana
-Kennil Gomez
-Julio Santana
-Dan Sattler
-Ryan Turner
-Kendy Batista
-Wilmer Font
-Miguel de los Santos
-Victor Barrios
-Michael Hollander
-Craig Gentry
-Fabio Castillo
-Andrew Laughter
-Neil Ramirez
-Kasey Kiker
-Nick Trzesniak
-Casey Benjamin
-German Duran
-Beau Jones
-Grant Gerrard
-Ben Harrison
-Julio Borbon

Others, such as Elvis Andrus, have missed time without ever seeing a DL. See the big trend here? Are we honing in on players that get injured easily or are we doing something wrong with them once we get them? It's possible this list is missing some people, so email me at texasrangersanalyst@gmail.com if you know of any more. We need to do something about our injuries.

Player Valuation

2008-07-25T14:59:00.001-04:00

No, I don't mean player evaluation. I'm speaking of the way in which we value certain players, especially with respect to this particular week in July every single year. With the trade rumors flying, it's amazing to see who is being offered for whom, and how teams value certain players. For example, Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning on an offer by the Rockies for pitcher Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is in the midst of a second solid season in the O's rotation, while Barmes is hitting the ball with a little consistency for the first time since his tear in early 2005. Question #1: Why would the Rockies think that the Orioles would even answer an insulting offer like that? Guthrie is pitching in a tough division in a tougher league, yet he's had a mid-to-upper 3s ERA for two seasons now. Barmes and Guthrie are both 29, but it's clear that Guthrie's value as a starting pitcher is much greater than Barmes' value as a fringe infielder. Barmes will be arbitration-eligible in the offseason, and Guthrie might sneak in as a Super Two. So what is the moral of this story? The Rockies over-value their players. That's not unlike every other team in MLB. The Rangers do the exact same thing. Marlon Byrd is overvalued by the front office. If I had the chance to pull the trigger on a Marlon Byrd-Matt Murton deal, the most I would ask for is an A-level prospect. Not Sean Gallagher, Jose Ceda, or Donald Veal. Byrd has consistently shown in his career than he cannot be counted on for production with the bat over any extended period of time. The last overvalued Ranger in that category is hitting .233 while making $9 million for the Angels. It seems to me that the Rangers have enough quality outfielders to make up for the loss of a good fielder in Marlon Byrd. So why is Matt Murton in Oakland instead of in Arlington? Because we as followers of the Texas Rangers overvalued him when we had a chance to sell that overvaluation to the Cubs for a better player. Matt Murton may be having a tough year, but I'd prefer him over Marlon Byrd in the five hole any day (lineup order will be discussed later).

So who else do we value so highly as to cloud our judgment in putting together a quality team? A quick look at the 40-man roster reveals Thomas Diamond (discussed yesterday in the Frisco rotation write-up), Luis Mendoza (although not a bad return for Bryan Corey), CJ Wilson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia (relating to Major League talent at this particular point), Joaquin Arias (can we just give up on the A-Rod trade now?), Ramon Vazquez, and David Murphy. Each one of these players is not as good as they're believed to be in Ranger circles. Each came to the Rangers via a different path. Those are some of the players I wouldn't mind losing playing time and/or their 40-man roster spot. Answer this: If Joaquin Arias wasn't a return in the A-Rod trade, would he have lasted this long? You can argue all you want over guys like David Murphy, too. If you took all the ABs he's had with RISP and converted them to a normal number for a player in his lineup spot, you'd find he would no longer have anywhere close to 61 RBI. He doesn't walk, strikes out more than you think, and his slugging percentage is only .462. If you don't get on-base as a corner outfielder, your power should make up for it. David Murphy's does not. I am a great believer in David Murphy's abilities, however. There's a reason he was a first-round draft pick. However, we give too much credit to skills than methods will record true results. I don't want a guy that looks like he can hit the ball well. I want a guy that can not get out. On that note, I love Adam Dunn. Discuss.

Welcome To The Farm - Minor League Starters

2008-07-24T16:28:00.001-04:00

As the AZL Rangers are currently wrapping up their game, it's hard to not have optimism over the future of the Rangers. Currently, we're breeding both future impact players and valuable trading chips that will land more impact players down the road. Every day I get to see young talent at every level. That's quite refreshing considering I couldn't say that about a year ago. Here's a quick look at the various levels of the system as it pertains to starting pitching.

Oklahoma: The Redhawks roster has been a little thin the last few weeks. Most of the impact prospects have gone on to see action in Arlington, but as the DL is thinning out, we're seeing more guys return to Oklahoma. The rotation has been a recent shambles, but Mike Ballard and Tommy Hunter give fans something to look forward to. Ballard does not have to be added to the 40-man roster for Rule V draft purposes until after next year, meaning he can have over a full year of AAA under his belt before even starting his first option year. He needed only 14 starts at Clinton, 14 starts at Bakersfield, and 16 (17 games) at Frisco before reaching this stage, and there's no reason to think that he can't hold down a back-end spot in the rotation for a couple of years. He's only 24, so the University of Virginia product has some good time to develop. Hunter is the more popular of the two starters for prospect status. After being a supplemental first-rounder last year as a draft-eligible sophomore from Alabama, he's needed even fewer starts than Ballard to reach AAA. However, there's even less reason to rush the talented righty, as he's pushing the limits of prospect innings while only just turning 22. It's about time to see if Hunter can finish the year in the bullpen or at least starting less frequently. Baseball is so great, because it has a history we can look back on and learn things that are still relevant in the present. One thing we've learned is that body type does not prevent arm injuries. That means Hunter's supposedly-durable frame doesn't look so good when weighed down with 138 innings of hard work in three hot environments (Bakersfield, Frisco, Oklahoma City). I see a Jeremy Bonderman-type shut down coming within the next month, with 160 innings being pretty close to the maximum you want to see him pitch.

Frisco: It seems the entire focus of the fan base is now on young Neftali Feliz. After being scratched from last night's start, panic has set in! Not to worry. Being bumped for what is likely a non-injury reason is good for young pitchers. Feliz, like all before him, has to focus on becoming a pitcher rather than a thrower. He has the stuff to be a true #1, but pitchability will always be an issue with up-and-coming hurlers. He's only 20, and he needs this time to focus on the non-physical aspects of pitching (not to mention to rest an arm that's more worked than ever). Patience. The other main starter of note is the fan favorite Thomas Diamond (formerly of DVD). I want to make a quick statement on my general skepticism about Diamond. To begin, he's struggling in AA at age 25. I understand he's in the comeback process, but he's already eating option year #1, and he doesn't look like he'll be ready to even see AAA anytime soon. Any time you draft a pitcher that high out of college, you want him to contribute fairly quickly (a la Tim Lincecum). It's now been over four years since that draft, and he's still struggling at AA. Injury aside, I think Diamond is only in the organization as a roster filler at this point. He's here, because he's Thomas Diamond. I want him to succeed, but I don't see it happening soon.

Bakersfield: Derek Holland has quickly become the toast of the Bakersfield Blaze. Having started the year in a rotation with Neftali Feliz, Evan Reed, Kennil Gomez, and Jorge Quintero at Clinton, he has made just two starts for the Blaze. However, they have been great outings, especially his last start against Visalia (his first starting assignment was against them, as well). In eight innings, he struck out nine Oaks and allowed only two hits. That's quite impressive for a 21 year-old draft-and-follow. He's scheduled to pitch tonight, so we'll see how he does in start number three. Kasey Kiker is the other big lefty name at Bakersfield at the moment. Despite being on the DL currently, he has pitched relatively well in a hitter's league for a 20 year-old. Our 2006 first-rounder, he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after the 2010 season, so for now it's a slow steady diet of development.

Clinton: In line with our usual development model, the Clinton rotation has our two first-rounders from last year. Blake Beavan went ahead of Michael Main in the 2007 draft, but most chose Main over Beavan when prospect rankings came around, mainly due to Beavan's lack of time on the bump after signing late last year. However, it looks like Beavan is becoming the more reliable of the two, as he has made 16 starts for the LumberKings, while Main has just completed 5 total starts on the year due to his ribcage injury. Both have electric fastballs, and both have been dealing with the normal first full-season woes physically. Main is in a struggle to make sure this isn't a lost year for his development, but he's likely to be back at Clinton to start next year anyway. Beavan on the other hand is dealing with velocity issues, a normal occurrence in the first full season for high school-drafted pitchers. Look for Beavan to continue to build up that arm strength and hit his peak for the season at nearly the same time Kasey Kiker did last year: the playoffs.

Spokane: The Spokane pitching staff has been superb to start the season, and there's no reason not to expect more of the same. With a rotation of Richard Bleier, Wilfredo Boscan, Martin Perez, Carlos Pimentel, and Neil Ramirez to start their season, the Indians seemed primed to throw quality pitching at older hitting. Ramirez has since gone to the DL, but the other four guys have done well for themselves. Bleier is the only one with college experience, though it was at a small school in Florida (Florida Gulf Coast). Any time you can draft a 6'3'' lefty with good stuff, do it. He's only 21, and is progressing nicely. Boscan, Perez, and Pimentel are all international signees, though Perez seems to stand out from the crowd. Being only 17 helps. This is his first professional baseball experience ever. It's also interesting to note that Boscan is pitching in the States for the first time, too. Pimentel was the more widely-regarded prospect entering the year after striking out 59 batters in 42.1 AZL innings last year, but control has been an issue so far for him. Expect good things from this group. However, don't be surprised to see one or more of them back in Spokane next year.

AZL Rangers: The two pitchers that stand out to me are Kyle O'Campo and Joe Wieland. O'Campo was a late sign last year for above-slot money, and Wieland is a 2008 draftee from a Nevada high school. Even I feel old when I see Wieland was born in 1990. Both of these projectable righties have seen some success so far in their first pro seasons. Both will be young for their league next year. As for other baby Ranger pitchers, Geuris Grullon continues to show amazing stuff with no clue where it's going when it leaves his hand. Bobby Wilkins has been a mild disappointment in his repeat of the AZL so far, but last year's big-bodied draftee has time to make up for it. Lefties are hitting .476 against him compared to righties' .160. It's about time to develop a serious changeup and/or cutter. He doesn't turn 19 until August 20. This team has some serious talent, but just needs to start harnessing it.

DSL Rangers: Ezequiel Rijo. Enough said.

Calculus and Baseball - The Big Club

2008-07-24T11:24:00.001-04:00

I'm sitting in the back of a classroom right now watching a student teacher perform a problem on the area of a surface of revolution. In other words, you have a solid piece of something with curved sides, and you want to know its surface area. At the moment, I'm laughing, because I just asked how this applies to anything I'll ever do in my life, as my undergrad major here is history, and I'll be going for my MBA upon graduation. Then it struck me that this actually applies to baseball in a pretty unique way. Baseball bats are made in such a way that the amount of surface area that meets an incoming baseball determines to a large amount the velocity with which it goes from there. If players can master the art of meeting a pitcher's pitch with the greatest part of their bat, they can become a great hitter. This explains the unique sound of a batting practice session by Josh Hamilton and other great hitters. They've learned to square the greatest amount of surface area on the head of their bat against an incoming ball. That's just a quick thought of mine to pass the time.

The big club was obviously disappointing yesterday afternoon, but that's not any reason to panic. We are still a club looking more at 2010 than 2008. Write that down. I think CJ Wilson deserves more time at closer, and Eddie Guardado is hit around every once in awhile. Things happen. We tend to forget that Carlos Quentin was great before this game, and his hitting skills have beaten many other pitchers. If we make any trades, they need to be for pieces that will be here when we start winning again, and at a fairly reasonable price financially and in players we send away. Gerald Laird is a quality catcher both offensively and defensively. If he comes back healthy (which is in doubt), he is an immediate upgrade over Salty, who continues to look like he's overmatched and overconfident for someone who has had little success in the big leagues. Laird can be here in 2010, the year just about everyone is pointing to for the next Rangers playoff run. If he leaves after that, thanks to his agent Scott Boras, we will get draft picks (health is once again the question). As for the moment, Salty looks like he needs another refresher course at Oklahoma. We've already used his option for the year, and this is his first option year (he didn't see the minors after his contract was purchased by Atlanta last year). He's still only 23. We don't have a pressing need to baptize him by fire, since we have three other quality backstops on the 40-man. I would love to see Salty in Oklahoma soon, with Teagarden in as the #2 backstop behind Laird. Max Ramirez can spend time at Oklahoma or Frisco honing his skills as a future Catcher/First Baseman/Designated Hitter. These people need ABs, and the only one I see as developing in spite of those ABs is Teagarden. Forget the Olympics thing. It's not what's best for the Rangers and for Teagarden. They're busy using his option a year early (for a few days of ML service time), and he'll lose the development time splitting catching duties with the Phillies' Lou Marson in Beijing. If we want him to development on our own terms, we need to keep him here. Winning the last baseball gold medal is not everything.

Hank Blalock's name has crept back up in rumors, but he'll still be here in August. That's my not-so-bold prediction. He's still a quality third baseman who needs to get healthy again while we find a suitable replacement. Unless we find a replacement in trading someone like Laird, losing Blalock will be risky. If we pick up his option for next year and he plays well, we'll be in line to either get a decent return at the deadline next year or draft picks. That will also give time to someone like Johnny Whittleman to develop. Another line of thinking might be that trading Blalock away can give Ramon Vazquez the stats to sneak into becoming a Type B free agent at the end of the season. He might accept arbitration, but with the rumor of recent grumblings, he might not. Considering he's only making $810,000 right now, accepting arbitration wouldn't be too costly to the Rangers anyway. They've been discussing the Elias rankings over at MLBTradeRumors, so check it out. It could be relevant to us more in the next couple of years.

That's the extent of Major League news pertaining to the Rangers as of now, and I'll be along with minors stuff later in the day. Drop me a line at texasrangersanalyst@gmail.com for questions or comments. It'd be great to run this somewhat like Minor League Ball, with readers driving player profiles, lists, rumors, or whatever. Have a good morning.

Gerald Laird and the Yankees

2008-07-23T18:32:00.001-04:00

Once again, the Gerald Laird-to-New York rumor is heating up. Per Ken Rosenthal:

"The Yankees have expressed interest in both the Rangers' Gerald Laird and Royals' Miguel Olivo, according to major-league sources. New York's current catchers, Jose Molina and Chad Moeller, both are career backups."

Show me that Salty can use his big frame to block a ball and I'll be all for this trade if we can get young pitching in return. Anyone else notice Salty try to backhand that Guardado pitch in the eighth? Is that guy for real? He needs a new brain to go into that gifted body. He's still one of the few AA catchers I've ever seen get thrown out of a game while catching for making a smart comment to an umpire right after catching a pitch (happened in Jacksonville while playing for Mississippi in 2006). Laird is cheap and it's obvious Salty can't learn. I say keep Laird until bowled over by a great offer.